Market Roundup
•German Jun Retail Sales (YoY) -8.8%, -8.0% forecast, -3.6% previous
• German Jun Retail Sales (MoM) -1.6%, 0.2% forecast, 0.6% previous
• Spanish Jul Manufacturing PMI 48.7, 50.2 forecast, 52.6 previous
• Italian Jul Manufacturing PMI 48.5, 49.1 forecast, 50.9 previous
•French Jul Manufacturing PMI 49.5 49.6 forecast, 49.6 previous
•German Jul Manufacturing PMI 49.3, 49.2 forecast, 52.0 previous
• EU Jul Manufacturing PMI 49.8, 49.6 forecast, 52.1 previous
•UK Jul Manufacturing PMI 52.1, 52.2 forecast, 52.8 previous
•EU Jun Unemployment Rate 6.6%, 6.6% forecast, 6.6% previous
• French 12-Month BTF Auction 0.453% ,0.457% previous
• French 3-Month BTF Auction 0.001%, 0.002% previous
• French 6-Month BTF Auction 0.180%, 0.186% previous
Looking Ahead - Economic Data (GMT)
• 13:45 Jul Manufacturing PMI 52.3 forecast, 52.7 previous
• 14:00 US Jul ISM Manufacturing PMI 52.0 forecast, 53.0 previous
• 14:00 US Jul ISM Manufacturing New Orders Index 49.2 previous
•14:00 US Jul ISM Manufacturing Employment 47.3 previous
•14:00 US Jun Construction Spending (MoM) 0.2% forecast, -0.1% previous
•14:00 US Jul SM Manufacturing Prices 74.3 forecast, 78.5 previous
•15:30 US 6-Month Bill Auction 2.920% previous
•15:30 US 3-Month Bill Auction 2.520% previous
Looking Ahead - Economic events and other releases (GMT)
•No significant events
Fxbeat
EUR/USD: The euro strengthened on Monday as dollar weakened on bets the Federal Reserve will slow the pace of its interest rates hikes. Traders currently price about 31% probability that the U.S.Fed would keep its current 75 basis-point pace of rate hikes at its next meeting in September, with 69% odds for a smaller half-point increase. The big economic focus for this week will be the monthly U.S. jobs report on Friday. The euro benefited from the general dollar weakness, with the single currency rising 0.3% to $1.0253, continuing its consolidation near the middle of its range over the past week and a half. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0270(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0404(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0201(5DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0102(23.6%fib).
GBP/USD: Sterling rose towards a one-month high on Monday as an upbeat mood on broader financial markets helped the British pound while traders prepared for a Bank of England policy meeting this week. Investors have shifted to pricing in an 80% chance of a 50 basis point (bps) hike from the BoE, which will announce its decision on Thursday, as policymakers globally accelerate the pace of rate rises to fight soaring inflation. The pound was little moved by survey data on Monday showing British manufacturing output and new orders declined in July at the fastest rate since May 2020, with expectations for a slowing economy priced in by many traders. By 0830 GMT, sterling was 0.2% higher against the dollar at $1.2206, close to a one-month high of $1.2245 reached on Friday. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2271(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2368(61.8%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2168(38.2%fib),a break below could take the pair towards 1.2058(11DMA).
USD/CHF: The dollar strengthened against the Swiss franc on Monday as expectations over less-aggressive Federal Reserve rate-hike trajectory dented the dollar. Data at the end of last week tossed the dollar in both directions, with it rising initially after the personal consumption expenditures price index showed the fastest inflation since 2005, only to sink after the final University of Michigan report - closely watched by Fed policymakers showed slipping consumer inflation expectations . The U.S. ISM manufacturing survey for July is due at 1400 GMT, forecast to give an expansionary reading of 52 .Key U.S. employment data is due on Friday. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.9551(5DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.9601(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.9493(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.9442 (Lower BB).
USD/JPY: The dollar sank to a fresh six-week low to the yen on Monday as markets continued to wager that the Federal Reserve has less tightening to do with the U.S. economy at risk of recession. The dollar dipped as low as 132.07 yen for the first time since June 16, and was last 0.45% lower at 132.605. Data at the end of last week tossed the greenback in both directions, with it rising initially after the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index showed the fastest inflation since 2005, only to sink after the final University of Michigan report closely watched by Fed policymakers showed slipping consumer inflation expectations. The big economic focus for this week will be the monthly U.S. jobs report on Friday. Strong resistance can be seen at 133.94 (38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 134.57(5DMA).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 131.70 (50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 129.24 (61.8%fib).
Equities Recap
European shares edged up on Monday as a jump in banking stocks after HSBC's strong results offset fears of a global economic slowdown fanned by disappointing Chinese economic data and figures showing contraction in euro zone manufacturing activity.
At (GMT 13:44 ),UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading down at 0.04% percent, Germany's Dax was up by 0.17 % percent, France’s CAC was up by 0.03 %percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices rose on Monday as the dollar softened, while investors awaited economic readings that could determine the pace of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s interest rate hikes.
Spot gold was up 0.2% to $1,768.69 per ounce by 1236 GMT, while U.S. gold futures gained 0.5% to $1,790.10.
Oil prices dropped on Monday, as weak manufacturing data from China and Japan for July weighed on the outlook for demand, while investors braced for this week's meeting of officials from OPEC and other top producers on supply adjustments.
Brent crude futures were down $1.19, or 1.1 per cent, at $102.78 a barrel at 0212 GMT. US West Texas Intermediate crude was at $97.19 a barrel, down $1.43, or 1.5 per cent.
