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Europe Roundup: Sterling gains on Brexit deal hopes, euro steadies ahead of ECB policy meeting outcome, European shares plunge - Thursday, December 13th, 2018

Market Roundup

  • Switzerland Q4 2018 3m target LIBOR rate stays flat at -0.75 % (forecast -0.75 %) vs previous -0.75 %
     
  • Switzerland Nov 2018 producer/import price yy decrease to 1.4 % vs previous 2.3 %
     
  • Switzerland Nov 2018 producer/import price mm decrease to -0.3 % vs previous 0.2 %
     
  • France Nov 2018 inflation ex-tobacco index decrease to 103.14 vs previous 103.37
     
  • France Nov 2018 CPI mm nsa decrease to -0.2 % vs previous -0.1 %
     
  • France Nov 2018 CPI NSA decrease to 103.45 vs previous 103.67
     
  • France Nov 2018 CPI yy nsa stays flat at 1.9 % vs previous 1.9 %
     
  • France Nov 2018 inflation ex-tobacco mm decrease to -0.2 % vs previous 0.1 %
     
  • France Nov 2018 inflation ex-tobacco index decrease to 102.78 vs previous 103.37
     
  • France Nov 2018 CPI (EU Norm) final yy stays flat at 2.2 % (forecast 2.2 %) vs previous 2.2 %
     
  • France Nov 2018 CPI (EU Norm) final mm decrease to -0.2 % (forecast -0.2 %) vs previous -0.1 %
     
  • Germany Nov 2018 CPI final nsa increase to 112.4 vs previous 112.3
     
  • Germany Nov 2018 CPI final mm stays flat at 0.1 % (forecast 0.1 %) vs previous 0.1 %
     
  • Germany Nov 2018 CPI final yy stays flat at 2.3 % (forecast 2.3 %) vs previous 2.3 %
     
  • Germany Nov 2018 HICP final mm stays flat at 0.1 % (forecast 0.1 %) vs previous 0.1 %
     
  • Germany Nov 2018 CPI final yy decrease to 0.1 % (forecast 2.3 %) vs previous 2.3 %
     
  • Germany Nov 2018 HICP final yy stays flat at 2.2 % (forecast 2.2 %) vs previous 2.2 %
     
  • Germany Nov 2018 CPI final mm increase to 1.8 % (forecast 0.1 %) vs previous 0.1 %
     

Economic Data Ahead

  • (0745 ET/1245 GMT) The European Central Bank will announce its interest rate decision.
     
  • (0830 ET/1330 GMT) The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits is likely to have decreased by 6,000 to a seasonally adjusted 225,000 for the week ended Dec. 7, while continuing claims for the week ended Dec. 30 is expected to decline to 1.650 million from a previous reading of 1.631 million.
     
  • (0830 ET/1330 GMT) The U.S. Labor Department publishes the import and export prices index for the month of November. The import prices are likely to have declined 0.9 percent after rising 0.5 percent in October, while exports are expected to have edged down 0.1 percent after increasing 0.4 percent in the prior month.
     
  • (0830 ET/1330 GMT) The Statistics Canada releases the employment report for November. The economy shed 23,000 jobs in the previous month.
     
  • (0830 ET/1330 GMT) The Statistics Canada releases its New Housing Price Index (NHPI) for the month of October. The index remained unchanged in September.
     
  • (1030 ET/1530 GMT) The Energy Information Administration (EIA) reports its Natural Gas Storage for the week ending December 7.
     

Key Events Ahead

  • (0830 ET/1330 GMT) European Central Bank President releases the monetary policy statement and gives a press conference.

FX Beat

DXY: The dollar index declined, as investors curb their expectations for more Federal Reserve policy tightening in 2019. The greenback against a basket of currencies trades 0.05 percent down at 96.97, having touched a low of 96.36 on Monday, its lowest since Nov 22. FxWirePro's Hourly Dollar Strength Index stood at 44.17 (Neutral) by 0400 GMT.

EUR/USD: The euro rose, extending previous session gains after Italy lowered its deficit target for next year and said it expected the European Commission to accept its new 2019 budget proposal. Investors now await the European Central Bank's monetary policy meeting for further insights on the central bank's bond purchase programme. The European currency traded 0.1 percent up at 1.1377, having touched a high of 1.1442 on Monday, its highest since Nov. 20. FxWirePro's Hourly Euro Strength Index stood at 38.08 (Neutral) by 1000 GMT. Immediate resistance is located at 1.1412 (December 6 High), a break above targets 1.1455 (November 2 High). On the downside, support is seen at 1.1305 (November 30 Low), a break below could drag it till 1.1267 (November 28 Low).

USD/JPY: The dollar surged as risk-sentiment improved on indications that the trade war between the United States and China may be easing. The major was trading 0.2 percent up at 113.47, having hit a high of 113.52 on Wednesday, its highest since December 4. FxWirePro's Hourly Yen Strength Index stood at -89.61 (Slightly Bearish) by 1000 GMT. Investors’ will continue to track the broad-based market sentiment, ahead of the U.S. unemployment benefits claims; and import and export price index. Immediate resistance is located at 113.66 (December 4 High), a break above targets 114.03 (November 28 High). On the downside, support is seen at 112.66 (October 23 Low), a break below could take it lower 112.08 (October 24 Low).

GBP/USD: Sterling rose to a 3-day peak after Prime Minister Theresa May survived a no-confidence vote from her party and hopes that Britain still had a chance to leave the European Union in March with a deal. The major traded 0.3 percent up at 1.2657, having hit a low of 1.2480 on Tuesday; it’s lowest since mid-April 2017. FxWirePro's Hourly Sterling Strength Index stood at 37.59 (Neutral) 1000 GMT.  Immediate resistance is located at 1.2700, a break above could take it near 1.2754. On the downside, support is seen at 1.2560, a break below targets 1.2515. Against the euro, the pound was trading 0.1 percent down at 89.87 pence, having hit a low of 90.87 on Monday, it’s lowest since August 29.

USD/CHF: The Swiss franc edged higher after the Swiss National Bank kept its ultra-loose monetary policy unchanged at a policy meeting, as expected. The major trades 0.2 percent down at 0.9917, having touched a low of 0.9863 on Tuesday; it’s lowest since Oct. 16. FxWirePro's Hourly Swiss Franc Strength Index stood at -93.26 (Slightly Bearish) by 1000 GMT. On the higher side, near-term resistance is around 0.9955 (Oct. 5 High) and any break above will take the pair to next level till 0.9980 (Nov. 23 High). The near-term support is around 0.9889 (Dec. 7 Low), and any close below that level will drag it till 0.9847 (Oct. 15 Low)

Equities Recap

European shares slumped, amid persistent uncertainty over Britain's exit from the European Union, while euro rose ahead of European Central Bank’s policy meeting decision.  

The pan-European STOXX 600 index plunged 0.1 percent at 349.79 points, while the FTSEurofirst 300 index declined 0.1 percent to 1,379.96 points.

Britain's FTSE 100 trades 0.1 percent down at 6,874.48 points, while mid-cap FTSE 250 fell 0.4 to 17,929.23 points.

Germany's DAX surged 0.05 percent at 10,931.06 points; France's CAC 40 trades 0.05 percent higher at 4,909.47 points.

Commodities Recap

Crude oil prices declined, weighed down by high inventories, however, a drawdown in U.S. crude stockpiles limited downside.  International benchmark Brent crude was trading 0.7 percent up at $59.77 per barrel by 1029 GMT, having hit a high of $63.67 on Friday, its highest since November 22. U.S. West Texas Intermediate was trading 0.7 percent down at $50.84 a barrel, after rising as high as $54.20 on Friday, its highest since the December 5.

Gold prices eased as the dollar steadied on signs of easing trade tensions between the United States and China. Spot gold was trading 0.05 percent down at $1,244.28 per ounce 1032 GMT, having touched a high of $1,250.46 on Monday, its highest level since July 11. U.S. gold futures were up 0.1 percent at $1,251.2 per ounce.

Treasuries Recap

The Japanese government bond prices declined across the board as an ebb in risk aversion dented demand for safe-haven debt. The 10-year JGB yield rose 0.5 basis point to 0.055 percent, edging away from a near 5-month trough of 0.035 percent set on Monday. The 30-year yield climbed half a basis point to 0.795 percent.

The Australian government bond futures eased a tad, with the three-year bond contract off 2 ticks at 98.015. The 10-year contract slipped 1-3/4 ticks to 97.5300. The New Zealand government bonds were barely changed.

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March 19 07:00 UTC Released

CHTrade

Actual

3125 Mln CH

Forecast

Previous

3043 Mln CH

March 19 00:30 UTC Released

AUHome Price Index*

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-2.4 %

Forecast

-2 %

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-1.5 %

January 31 00:00 UTC 594172594172m

ARAnnual Primary Balance*

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Forecast

2016 bln ARS

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January 31 00:00 UTC 594172594172m

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2016 bln ARS

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January 22 19:00 UTC 605992605992m

ARTrade Balance

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-1541 %

January 31 00:00 UTC 594172594172m

ARAnnual Primary Balance*

Actual

Forecast

2016 bln ARS

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Bln AR bln ARS

January 22 19:00 UTC 605992605992m

ARTrade Balance

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Forecast

Previous

-1541 %

January 31 00:00 UTC 594172594172m

ARAnnual Primary Balance*

Actual

Forecast

2016 bln ARS

Previous

Bln AR bln ARS

January 31 00:00 UTC 594172594172m

ARAnnual Primary Balance*

Actual

Forecast

2016 bln ARS

Previous

Bln AR bln ARS

January 31 00:00 UTC 594172594172m

ARAnnual Primary Balance*

Actual

Forecast

2016 bln ARS

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Bln AR bln ARS

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