Market Roundup
• German Jun Trade Balance 20.4B,21.7B forecast,24.9B previous
• German Jun German Exports (MoM) -3.4%,-1.5% forecast, -3.6% previous
• German Jun German Imports (MoM) 0.3%,2.8% forecast,-6.6% previous
•French Jun Trade Balance -6.1B, -7.5B forecast, -8.0B previous
• French Jun Current Account -2.60B, -3.10B previous
•French Jun Imports 57.7B, 58.2B previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
• 14:00 Canada Jul Ivey PMI 60.0 forecast, 62.5 previous
• 14:00 Canada Jul Ivey PMI n.s.a 62.4 previous
•14:30 US Heating Oil Stockpiles 0.158M previous
•14:30 US Gasoline Inventories -1.900M forecast, -3.665M previous
•14:30 US Crude Oil Inventories -1.600M forecast, -3.436M previous
•19:00 US Jun Consumer Credit 9.80B forecast,11.35B previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
•No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro declined on Wednesday as investor nerves were calmed after Federal Reserve policymakers downplayed recession fears.. On the data front, German industrial production rose in June by 1.4% compared to the previous month, the federal statistics office said on Wednesday.Analysts polled had predicted a 1.0% rise. German exports fell more than expected in June due to weak demand from the United States, the country's key trade partner, and from the rest of the European Union, official data showed on Wednesday.Month on month, Germany exported 3.4% fewer goods in June, the federal statistics office reported, more than double the 1.5% decline forecast by analysts . Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0977(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1000(Psychological level).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0903(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0839(50%fib).
GBP/USD: The pound declined against the dollar on Wednesday as fears of an imminent U.S. recession had also faded. Recessionary fears in the United States after weak economic data last week had triggered a market meltdown on Monday, sending investors scrambling for safe-haven assets. However, positive U.S. data and comments from Federal Reserve policymakers helped global markets make up most of their losses on Wednesday. Sterling was 0.1% higher at $1.2704. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2753(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2855(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2671(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2596(61.8%fib).
USD/CHF: The dollar strengthened against the Swiss franc on Wednesday as greenback strengthened as fears of an imminent U.S. recession were viewed as overblown. Fed policymakers pushed back against the notion that weaker-than-expected July jobs data means the economy is in recessionary freefall, but also warned that rate cuts will be needed to avoid such an outcome. The U.S. dollar index , which measures the currency against six rivals, rose 0.15% to 103.13, inching further away from the seven-month low of 102.15 it touched on Monday. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.8618(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.8690(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.8511 (23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.8400(Psychological level).
USD/JPY: The dollar strengthened on Wednesday as yen slipped lower after an influential Bank of Japan official played down the chances of a near-term rate hike. The yen fell around 2.5% to a session low of 147.94 per dollar following the comments from BOJ Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida.His remarks, which contrasted with Governor Kazuo Ueda's hawkish comments made last week when the BOJ unexpectedly raised interest rates, sent Japanese stocks higher, opens new tab, leaving them effectively flat for the week.The BOJ's hike last week, along with intervention from Tokyo in early July, led investors to bail out of once-popular carry trades in which traders borrow the yen at low rates to invest in assets that offer higher returns. Strong resistance can be seen at 147.57(38.2 %fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 150.11 (50%fib). On the downside, immediate support is seen at 144.11(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 141.67(Daily low).
Equities Recap
European shares surged on Wednesday, boosted by a slew of upbeat corporate earnings. However, gains were tempered after heavyweight Novo Nordisk missed estimates for its second-quarter operating profit.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading down at 1.13 percent, Germany's Dax was down by 1.33 percent, France’s CAC finished was up by 1.44 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices inched up on Wednesday, driven by safe-haven demand and increasing bets that the U.S. Federal Reserve might reduce interest rates as early as September. However, gains were limited by a rebound in the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields.
Spot gold rose 0.2% to $2,393.66 per ounce, as of 0936 GMT, having settled lower in the previous four sessions. U.S. gold futures gained 0.1% to $2,434.00.
Oil prices bounced back from multi-month lows on Wednesday amid concerns that an escalating conflict in the Middle East could disrupt oil production, despite ongoing worries about weak crude demand.
Brent crude futures were up $1.10, or 1.4%, to $77.58 a barrel at 1055 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was up $1.05, also 1.4%, to $74.25.
