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Europe Roundup: Sterling gains after UK jobs rise eases BoE worries, European shares gains, Gold gains, Oil rises on tight inventories, demand worries limit gains-November 16th,2021

Market Roundup

• UK Sep Employment Sep  Change 3M/3M (MoM) 247K ,185K forecast, 235K previous

• UK Sep Average Earnings Index +Bonus  5.8%,5.6% forecast, 7.2% previous

• UK Sep Unemployment Rate  4.3%,4.4% forecast, 4.5%  previous

• UK Oct Claimant Count Change  -14.9K, -51.1K previous

• UK Labour Productivity -1.2%,0.1% previous

• French Oct CPI (MoM)  0.4%, 0.4% forecast, -0.2% previous

• French Oct HICP (YoY)  3.2%,3.2% forecast, 2.7% previous

•French Oct HICP (MoM)  0.4%, 0.5% forecast, -0.2% previous

•Italian Oct HICP (YoY)  3.2%, 3.1% forecast, - 3.1% previous

•Italian Oct CPI (MoM)  0.7%, 0.6% forecast, 0.6% previous

•Italian Oct HICP (MoM)  0.9%, 0.8% forecast, 0.8% previous

•EU GDP (YoY) (Q3) 3.7%,3.7% forecast, 3.7% previous

•EU Employment Overall (Q3) 160,757.7K forecast, 158,952.5K previous

•EU GDP (QoQ) (Q3) 2.2% forecast, 2.2% forecast, 2.2% previous

Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)

•13:15 Canada Oct Housing Starts  255.0K forecast, 251.2K previous

•13:30 US Oct Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos (MoM) 0.7% previous

•13:30 US Core Retail Sales (MoM) 1.0% forecast, 0.8% previous

•13:30 US Export Price Index (MoM)  0.9%,0.1% previous

•13:30 US Oct  Import Price Index (MoM)  1.0% forecast, 0.4% previous

•13:30 US Retail Sales (MoM)  1.2% forecast, 0.7% previous

•13:30 US Retail Sales (YoY) Oct 13.95% previous

•13:30 US Oct Retail Control (MoM)  0.9% forecast, 0.8% previous

•13:55 US Redbook (YoY) 15.6% previous

•14:15 US Oct Capacity Utilization Rate  75.8% forecast, 75.2% previous

•14:15 US Oct Industrial Production (YoY)  4.62% previous

•14:15 US Oct Industrial Production (MoM)  0.7% forecast, -1.3% previous

•14:30 US GlobalDairyTrade Price Index 4.3% previous

•14:30 US Sep Retail Inventories Ex Auto  0.6% previous

•15:00 US Sep Business Inventories (MoM)  0.6% forecast, 0.6% previous

•15:00 US Nov NAHB Housing Market Index  80 forecast, 80 previous

Looking Ahead - Events, Other Releases (GMT)

•16:10 ECB President Lagarde Speaks

•17:00 Canada BoC Gov Council Member Schembri Speaks

•17:00 US FOMC Member Barkin Speaks

•17:00 US FOMC Member Bostic Speaks

•19:55 US FOMC Member Harker Speaks


EUR/USD: The euro was little changed on Tuesday as dovish comments from European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde weighed on euro. Lagarde said that tightening monetary policy now to rein in inflation could choke off the euro zone's recovery, comments which were viewed as pushing back on calls and market bets for tighter policy. Investors now eye U.S. retail sales data due at 1330 GMT, which could influence the Federal Reserve’s stance on interest rates hikes. The data follows last week’s weak consumer sentiment reading. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1424 (5DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1476 (50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1358(23.6 % fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1300(Psychological level).

GBP/USD: The pound rose on Tuesday as data showed British employers hired more people in October after the government’s job-protecting furlough scheme ended, easing some of the Bank of England concerns about the risks of raising interest rates.Fears of a slowdown in the jobs market, following the end of the furlough scheme on Sept. 30, prompted the BoE to surprise the market and keep rates on hold at its latest meeting, when sterling had its deepest fall versus the dollar in 14 months. Sterling rose versus the dollar,0.4% to $1.3467 at 0930 GMT, after touching a 11-month low on Friday. It also rose 0.4% against the euro to 84.38 pence. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3464 (38.2% fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3521 (50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3407 (5DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3386(23.6%fib).

USD/CHF: The dollar rose against the Swiss franc on Tuesday as investors cheered a cordial opening to a key meeting between U.S. President Joe Biden and Chinese leader Xi Jinping. Biden and Xi Jinping started their closely-watched talks warmly, with both leaders stressing their responsibility to the rest of the world to avoid conflict, with the Chinese leader calling the U.S. President an “old friend. Sino-U.S. ties have endured a prolonged period of tensions under the former Trump administration and both sides have recently escalated a war of words over a broad array of contentious issues including Taiwan as well trade and technology. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.9277 (50 % fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.9313 (61.8%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.9242  (38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.9202(23.6%fib ).

USD/JPY: The dollar edged lower against the Japanese yen on Monday as markets welcomed dialogue between the U.S. and Chinese presidents. U.S. President Joe Biden and Chinese leader Xi Jinping stressed their responsibility to the world to avoid conflict, in talks which gave Asian currencies a lift overnight. The dollar index was a touch lower at 95.446, having rallied to its highest in 16 months after U.S. inflation data last week showed consumer prices surged to their highest rate since 1990, fuelling speculation that the Federal Reserve may raise interest rates sooner than expected. Investors are waiting for U.S. retail sales data due later in the session, which could also influence the outlook for interest rates. Strong resistance can be seen at 114.29 (23.6% fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 114.67 (Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 114.06 (5 DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 113.76(38.2% fib).

Equities Recap

Several European stock indexes hit record highs on Tuesday, boosted by strong corporate earnings, dovish statements from the European Central Bank chief and signs of easing U.S.-China tensions.

At (GMT 11:40 ),UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading up at 0.17 percent, Germany's Dax was up by 0.51 percent, France’s CAC finished was up by 0.44  percent.

Commodities Recap

Oil prices rose on Tuesday, supported by the prospect of tight inventories across the globe, although the gains were capped by forecasts of an increase in global production in coming months and concerns over rising coronavirus cases in Europe.

Brent crude was 52 cents, or 0.6%, higher at $82.57 a barrel, by 1110 GMT, and U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude climbed 42 cents, or 0.5%, to $81.30 a barrel.

Gold prices rose to their highest level in more than five months on Tuesday as rising price pressures burnished the metal’s appeal as an inflation hedge and offset a strong dollar.

Spot gold rose 0.6% to $1,873.67 per ounce by 1040 GMT, while U.S. gold futures climbed 0.5% to $1,875.70.

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