Market Roundup
• Euro holds near 3-year lows, gold above $1,600 an ounce
• Oil gains more than 2% as virus fears ease
• UK Jan Core Retail Sales (MoM)
1.6%,0.8% forecast, -0.8% previous
• UK Jan Core Retail Sales (YoY) 1.2%,0.4% forecast, 0.7% previous
• UK Jan Retail Sales (YoY) 0.8% , 0.7% forecast, 0.9% previous
• UK Jan Retail Sales (MoM) 0.9%,0.7% forecast , -0.5% previous
• UK Feb CBI Industrial Trends Orders -18, -19 forecast, -22 previous
• Irish Jan CPI (MoM) -0.7%,0.2% previous
• Irish Jan CPI (YoY) 1.3%,1.3% previous
• Irish Jan HICP (MoM) -0.7%,0.2% previous
Looking Ahead - Economic Data (GMT)
• 13:30 US Continuing Jobless Claims1,720K forecast, 1,698K previous
• 13:30 US Initial Jobless Claims 210K forecast 205K previous
• 13:30 US Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg 212.00K previous
• 13:30 US Feb Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index 12.0 forecast, 17.0 previous
• 13:30 US Feb Philly Fed Business Conditions 38.4 previous
• 13:30 US Feb Philly Fed CAPEX Index 32.90 previous
• 13:30 US Feb Philly Fed Employment 19.3 previous
• 13:30 Canada ADP Nonfarm Employment Change 71.8K forecasts, 46.2K previous
• 13:30 Canada Jan New Housing Price Index (MoM) 0.2% forecast, 0.2% previous
• 15:00 US Jan Leading Index (MoM) 0.4% forecasts, -0.3% previous
Looking Ahead - Economic events and other releases (GMT)
• No significant events
Fx Beat
EUR/USD: The euro recovered some ground against dollar on Thursday, as concern about a euro zone economic slowdown and concerns of China’s coronavirus weighed on euro. The coronavirus continues to shape risk appetite. China has reported a large drop in new cases and announced an interest rate cut to buttress its economy. But South Korea reported a jump in new cases, two people died in Japan and researchers said the virus spreads more easily than previously believed.The euro was last trading down 0.13% at $1.0789 . Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0789 (5 DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0863 (9 DMA).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0766 (Lower BB), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0700 (Psychological level).
GBP/USD: Sterling slipped for the fourth straight day against the dollar on Thursday as the U.S. currency’s broad-based strength and jitters over the start of Britain’s trade talks with the EU offset data showing a strong rebound in UK retail sales.The currency ticked higher immediately after the release. Earlier, it had fallen to 10-day lows of $1.2884 but the modest move fizzled quickly, leaving the pound 0.1% lower at $1.2908.Sterling had posted a 0.6% loss on Wednesday for its biggest daily fall since early-February. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2969 (5 DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3002 (21 DMA).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2931 (100 DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2870 (Higher BB).
USD/CHF: The dollar strengthened against the Swiss franc on Thursday, after China reported another decline in new coronavirus cases and on expectations of Chinese stimulus to counter a slowdown in growth. China is widely expected to cut its benchmark lending rate on Thursday, according to a survey of traders and analysts, after the country’s central bank lowered the interest rate on medium-term loans earlier this week.The death toll from the coronavirus climbed above 2,000, but the number of newly reported cases fell for a second day to the lowest since January. At (GMT 13:07), Greenback gained 0.01% versus the Swiss franc to 0.9836. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.9854 (Higher BB), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.9863 (200 DMA).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.9823 (5 DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 0.9796 (11 DMA).
USD/JPY: The dollar rose against the Japanese yen on Thursday, extending its previous day's gain that saw the currency breach a key technical level against a broadly weaker yen. A run of dire economic news out of Japan has stirred talk the country is already in recession and that Japanese funds were dumping local assets in favour of U.S. shares and gold.Improving risk appetite in global markets has also hit the yen, which usually tends to benefit in times of market stress. Strong resistance can be seen at 112.21 (Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 112.39 (23.6% Fib ).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 111.46 (50% Fib), a break below could take the pair towards 111.08 (61.8% Fib).
Equities Recap
European shares retreated from record highs on Thursday, as a rise in the number of new coronavirus cases in South Korea added to fears after research suggested the virus was more contagious than previously thought.
At (GMT 12:38),UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading lower at 0.01 percent, Germany's Dax was down by 0.15 percent, France’s CAC was last down by 0.20 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices dipped on Thursday after China unveiled measures to soften the economic impact of the coronavirus outbreak, but the metal held close to a nearly seven-year peak scaled in the previous session as concerns over the epidemic prevailed .
Spot gold was down 0.3% at $1,606.62 per ounce, as of 0749 GMT. U.S. gold futures dipped 0.1% to $1,609.60.
Brent oil prices held near one-month highs on Thursday supported by China’s efforts to boost its economy, a drop in new coronavirus cases at the epicentre of the outbreak and supply concerns in Venezuela and Libya.
Brent crude futures were up 7 cents at $59.19 a barrel by 0939 GMT, after climbing to as high as $59.71 earlier in the day.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures climbed 17 cents to $53.46 per barrel.
Treasuries Recap
U.S.: The U.S. Treasuries gained on Thursday on hopes of dissponting jobless claims data. However, traders' focus is largely attuned to the coronavirus outbreak. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield fell 21/2 basis points to 1.544 percent, the super-long 30-year bond yield fell 3 basis points to 1.989 percent and the yield on the short-term 2-year dipped about 2 basis points to 1.412 percent by 11:40GMT.
UK: The United Kingdom’s held gains during European trading hours on Thursday even as the country’s January retail sales remained solid and promising, with month -over- month data rising to seven month high of 0.9 percent. The yield on the benchmark 10-year gilts, fell 1 basis point to 0.591 percent, the 30-year yield plunged about 2 basis points to 1.069 percent and the yield on the short-term 2-year dipped 1 basis point to 0.513 percent by 11:20GMT.
Germany: German bunds held gains during afternoon session on Thursday as traders seek refuge in safe-haven assets on fear that the coronavirus outbreak will slow the global economy. The German 10-year bond yield, which moves inversely to its price, slumped about 1 basis point to -0.423 percent, the long-term 30-year yield plunged 2 basis points to 0.084 percent and the yield on short-term 2-year remained 1 basis point down at -0.645 percent by 10:50GMT.
Australia: Australian bonds surge on Thursday as January disappointing employment data has strengthened the prospects for Reserve Bank of Australia interest rate cut. The yield on Australia’s benchmark 10-year note, which moves inversely to its price, declined 6 basis points to 0.986 percent, the yield on the long-term 30-year bond also plunged 6 basis points to 1.586 percent and the yield on short-term 2-year dipped 5 basis points to 0.704 percent by 04:50GMT.
