Market Roundup
• French CPI (MoM) (Oct): 0.1%, 0.1% forecast, -1.0% previous.
•French CPI (YoY) (Oct): 0.9%, 1.0% forecast, 1.2% previous.
• French HICP (MoM) (Oct): 0.1%, 0.1% forecast, -1.1% previous.
•French HICP (YoY) (Oct): 0.8%, 0.9% forecast, 1.1% previous.
•Spain Inflation (YoY) (Oct): 0.90%, 1.10% previous.
•Spain Core CPI (YoY) (Oct): 2.5%, 2.5% forecast, 2.4% previous.
•EU Employment Change (QoQ) (Q3): 0.1%, 0.1% forecast, 0.1% previous.
•EU Employment Change (YoY) (Q3): 0.5%, 0.6% previous.
•EU Employment Overall (Q3): 170,278.9K, 170,072.0K previous.
•EU GDP (YoY) (Q3): 1.4%, 1.3% forecast, 1.5% previous.
•EU GDP (QoQ) (Q3): 0.2%, 0.2% forecast, 0.1% previous.
•EU Trade Balance (Sep): 19.4B, 1.9B previous.
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•15:00 US Wholesale Inventories (MoM) (Aug) -0.2% previous
•15:00 US Wholesale Trade Sales (MoM) (Aug) 1.4% previous
•18:00 U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count 415 forecast,414 previous
•18:00 U.S. Baker Hughes Total Rig Count 548 previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releass(GMT)
•15:00 ECB's Lane Speaks
•15:05 US Fed Schmid Speaks
•19:30 US Fed Logan Speaks
•20:20 US FOMC Member Bostic Speaks
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD : The euro held steady against the dollar on Friday as investors awaited a backlog of U.S. data after the government’s reopening, with expectations that the figures will indicate a weakening economy. The broader market tone, however, was driven by a hawkish shift in U.S. rate expectations, with traders now pricing in less than a 50% chance of a 25-basis-point cut in December. This shift followed comments from several Federal Reserve officials who urged caution over further easing, pointing to inflation concerns and signs of stability in the labour market. Despite the hawkish signals, the dollar slipped, allowing the euro to climb back above $1.16. The single currency last traded at $1.1647. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1656(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1685 (Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1578(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1486(Lower BB).
GBP/USD: Sterling slipped lower against the dollar on Friday as pound attracted selling pressure due to growing UK fiscal concerns. A government source said on Friday that British finance minister Rachel Reeves has no intention of increasing income tax in her November 26 annual budget, citing an improved fiscal outlook. Reeves had been widely expected to abandon Labour’s pre-election pledge and raise income tax rates to plug a budget gap, but the Financial Times reported late Thursday that she has now dropped those plans.Reeves will likely need to raise tens of billions of pounds to meet her fiscal goals, and her recent remark that “we will all have to contribute” was interpreted as signaling a possible break from the government’s key election promise by increasing income tax rates.Investors reacted negatively at first, sending bond yields up by more than 10 basis points at one stage, while sterling dropped nearly 0.5% against the dollar. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3198(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3243(SMA 20).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3000(Psychological level), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2977(Lower BB).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollars dipped on Friday as global stock losses weigh on risk-sensitive Australian dollar. World stock markets took a beating on Friday as a hawkish tone from Federal Reserve officials doused hopes for a December U.S. rate cut, while a still-messy data calendar and worries about an AI bubble added to the angst.Concerns about a lack of economic data due to a U.S. government shutdown that came to an end this week, and frothy tech valuations against the backdrop of an AI boom, meanwhile added to the edgy mood across financial markets.Citing worries about inflation and signs of relative stability in the labour market after two U.S. rate cuts this year, a growing number of Federal Reserve policymakers are now signalling reticence on further easing.Markets now price a 49% chance of a quarter-point December Fed cut, compared to just over 60% earlier this week. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6543(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6594 (Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6473(61.8%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6440(Lower BB)
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar slipped on Friday as the yen regained some ground amid rising expectations of possible Japanese intervention. Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama reiterated on Wednesday that authorities were closely monitoring “one-sided, sharp moves” in the currency market, noting that the drawbacks of a weaker yen now outweigh its benefits.However, Japan’s efforts to counter the yen’s decline appear less effective this time, partly due to new Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s appointment of advisors who favour aggressive fiscal and monetary stimulus. While Tokyo officials have continued their verbal warnings against rapid depreciation in line with previous administrations their messaging is increasingly being challenged by voices arguing that a weaker yen can be advantageous.Takaichi, a strong supporter of expansionary policies, has filled key government panels with advocates of heavy spending and low interest rates, a combination that typically exerts downward pressure on the yen. Immediate resistance can be seen at 154.58(23.6%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 155.00 (Psychological level) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 152.90 (38.2%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 152.98 (SMA20).
Equities Recap
European stocks slipped on Friday after hawkish remarks from U.S. policymakers tempered hopes of an imminent rate cut, though the benchmark index remained on track for its best week since late September.
At (GMT 12:08),UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading down at 1.82 percent, Germany's Dax was down by 1.75 percent, France’s CAC was last down by 1.60 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold retreated from its intraday highs on Friday as comments from Fed officials dampened expectations of a rate cut in December, but lingering economic uncertainty kept the metal poised for a weekly advance.
Spot gold fell 0.6% to $4,145.49 per ounce, as of 1153 GMT, after hitting $4,211.06 earlier in the session. Bullion is up 3.7% so far this week.
Oil prices rose more than 1% on Friday, supported by supply concerns after Russia’s Black Sea port of Novorossiysk suspended oil exports following a Ukrainian drone strike on a key oil depot.
Brent crude futures were up 87 cents, or 1.4%, at $63.88 a barrel by 1221 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude advanced 93 cents, or 1.6%, to $59.62 a barrel.
