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Europe Roundup: Sterling falls after data showed the UK economy contracted in June, European shares rise, Gold edges lower, Oil prices set for weekly climb, but cloudy outlook caps gains-August 12th,2022

Market Roundup

• UK Jun Industrial Production (MoM) -0.9%, -1.3% forecast, 0.9%previous

• UK Jun Manufacturing Production (MoM) -1.6%,-1.8% forecast,1.4% previous

• UK GDP (YoY) (Q2) 2.9%, 2.8% forecast, 8.7% previous

• UK Business Investment (QoQ) (Q2) 3.8%,-0.3% forecast,-0.6% previous

• UK Jun Industrial Production (YoY)  2.4%,1.6% forecast,1.4% previous

• UK Jun Construction Output (MoM) -1.4% ,-1.5% forecast, 1.5% previous

• U.K. Jun Construction Output (YoY) 4.1%, 3.3%  forecast,4.9% previous

• U.K. Jun Trade Balance -22.85B, -22.30B forecast,-20.67B previous

• U.K. Jun Trade Balance Non-EU  -12.29B , -9.60B previous

•­­French Jul CPI (MoM) (0.3%,0.3% forecast,0.8% previous

• U.K.GDP (QoQ) (Q2)-0.1%,-0.2% forecast,-0.8% previous

• French Jul HICP (MoM) 0.3%,  0.3%forecast,0.9%previous

• Italian US Trade Balance -2.166B,0.350B forecast,-0.012B previous

•EU Jun Industrial Production (YoY) 2.4%,0.8% forecast, 1.6% previous

•EU Jun  Industrial Production (MoM) 0.7%,0.2% forecast, 0.8% previous

Looking Ahead – Economic data (GMT)

•12:30 US Jul Import Price Index (MoM) 1.0% forecast, 0.2%previous

•12:30 US Jul Export Price Index (MoM) -1.1% forecast, 0.7% previous

•14:00 US Aug Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations 2.90% previous    

•14:00 US Michigan Consumer Expectations  48.4 forecast, 47.3  previous

•14:00 US Aug Michigan Inflation Expectations  5.2 previous

•14:00 US Aug Michigan Consumer Sentiment 52.5 forecast,51.5 previous

•14:00   US Aug Michigan Current Conditions 59.0 forecast, 58.1 previous

•17:00 U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count 598 previous

•17:00 U.S. Baker Hughes Total Rig Count 764 previous


EUR/USD: The euro declined on Friday as markets digested a new round of hawkish remarks from policy makers at the U.S. Federal Reserve, helping the dollar regain some of its losses from earlier in the week. Market participants have toned down expectations of an aggressive rate hike by the Fed after cooler-than-expected inflation data released earlier this week. However, recent comments by some Fed officials continue to highlight a hawkish tilt. The dollar edged 0.3% higher on the day, but was down about 1.2% for the week. Fed’s Mary Daly said on Thursday that while a half-percentage-point interest rate hike in September makes sense, she is open to the possibility of a bigger hike. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0322(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0412(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0247(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0217(14DMA).

GBP/USD: Sterling declined against dollar  on Friday  after  data showed Britain's economy contracted in June, even if not by as much as had been feared. The Office for National Statistics said gross domestic product fell by 0.6% in June, the biggest contraction since January 2021 but less severe than the 1.3% drop predicted by a poll of economists. The month unusually contained two bank holidays to celebrate Queen Elizabeth's Platinum Jubilee but most of the drag on GDP in June came from the winding-down of coronavirus-related health services. The pound tumbled 0.58% against the dollar to $1.2131. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2116(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2275(10th Aug).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2125(38.2%fib),a break below could take the pair towards 1.2085 (21DMA).

 USD/CHF: The dollar edged higher against the Swiss franc on Friday as investors remained wary of Federal Reserve's stance on how aggressively it might raise interest rates despite softer inflation numbers earlier in the week.A string of Fed officials have warned investors against being optimistic following inflation data this week, with the latest being San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly, who said on Thursday that she is open to a bigger rate hike than a 50 basis point one if data warranted. The dollar index, which measures the currency against six rivals, recovered slightly and was last trading at 105.16.Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.9466(5DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.9501(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.9381 (23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.9340 (Lower BB).

USD/JPY: The dollar strengthened against yen on Friday worries over further rate hikes from the U.S. Federal Reserve boosted greenback.U.S. inflation figures on Wednesday and Thursday were lower than expected, boosting riskier assets such as equities and weakening the dollar, as markets interpreted the data as indicating the Fed could be less aggressive in rate hikes. But Fed officials made clear they would continue to tighten monetary policy. San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President Mary Daly said on Thursday she was open to the possibility of another 75 basis point (bp) hike in September to fight too-high inflation. The yen lost out to the dollar's strength, with the U.S. unit up 0.5% against the Japanese currency at 133.62 . Strong resistance can be seen at 134.78(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 136.00(Psychological level).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 132.62(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 131.33 (61.8%fib).


European stocks advanced on Friday after data showed Euro zone industrial production in June grew three times more than expected on the back of a jump in the output of capital goods.

At (GMT 11:54),UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading up at 0.28% percent, Germany's Dax was up by  0.43% percent, France’s CAC was up by 0.16% percent

Commodities Recap

Gold prices inched lower on Friday but were still on track for a weekly rise, as an overall weakness in the dollar offset pressure from an uptick in bond yields and worries over further rate hikes from the U.S. Federal Reserve.

Spot gold was down 0.1% at $1,787.83 per ounce, as of 0835 GMT. Bullion was still headed for its fourth straight weekly gain, up nearly 1% in its longest weekly rally in almost a year.U.S. gold futures fell 0.2% to $1,804.00.

Oil prices fell on Friday as recession fears clouded the demand outlook yet remained on track for a weekly rise.

Brent crude futures were down $1.15, or 1.2%, to $98.45 a barrel 1110 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures fell $1.48 or 1.6% to $92.86 a barrel.

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