Market Roundup
•German WPI (MoM) 0.3%,0.2% forecast,-0.3% previous
•German Jul WPI (YoY) -0.1%, -0.6% previous
•Portuguese CPI (YoY) 2.5%,2.5% forecast,2.8% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•13:00 French 12-Month BTF Auction 2.924% previous
•13:00 French 3-Months BTF Auction 3.485% previous
•13:00 French 6-Month BTF Auction 3.245% previous
•15:00 US Jul Consumer Inflation Expectations 3.0% previous
•15:30 US 3-Month Bill Auction 5.075% previous
•15:30 US 6-Month Bill Auction 4.700% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
•No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro declined on Monday as investors brace for data-packed week. Investors will be focused on the U.S. consumer prices data set to drop on Wednesday, which will shape the direction for the global monetary policy.Employment data from the UK and inflation numbers from Spain will also be on investors' radar later in the week. Euro zone's flash employment, GDP and inflation production numbers are set for release on Wednesday. The euro dipped 0.1% to $1.0923 , while the dollar index was flat at 103.22, the euro rose as far as $1.1009 for the first time since Jan. 2. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0977(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1000(Psychological level).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0903(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0839(50%fib).
GBP/USD: The British pound edged up on Monday but gains were limited as traders looked ahead to a run of British economic data this week that could influence how quickly the Bank of England (BoE) cuts interest rates.British employment data due on Tuesday, inflation figures on Wednesday and economic output data on Thursday could start to clear up the picture. The BoE cut rates for the first time since 2020 at the start of this month, but was cautious on prospects for more easing.Money markets show traders are pricing in further BoE rate cuts of 44 basis points (bps) by the end of this year, compared to 101 bps from the U.S. Federal Reserve.Sterling was last up 0.1% versus the dollar at $1.2764 . Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2778(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2856(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2717(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2656(61.8%fib).
USD/CHF: The dollar steadied against the Swiss franc on Monday as traders looked to key U.S. inflation data due later this week for more monetary policy cues.Investors were looking ahead to U.S. consumer price index data for July on Wednesday, which is expected to show month-on-month inflation ticked up to 0.2% after a minus 0.1% reading in June. Retail sales data is due on Thursday. Fed Governor Michelle Bowman on Saturday softened her usually hawkish tone ever so slightly, noting some further welcome progress on inflation in the last couple months even as she said inflation remains "uncomfortably above" the Fed's 2% goal. The dollar was trading at 147.55 yen , up 0.7%, and was also up nearly 0.5% on the Swiss franc, at 0.8694. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.8698 (38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.8789 (50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.8598(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.8511(Lower BB).
USD/JPY: The dollar firmed on Monday as yen fell in calmer currency market trading after volatile moves last week, while investors weighed the odds of a deep Fed rate cut next month ahead of a slew of U.S. economic data. The respite follows a tumultuous week that began with a massive sell-off across currencies and stock markets, driven by worries over the U.S. economy and the Bank of Japan's hawkishness. Last week ended calmer, with Thursday's stronger-than-expected U.S. jobs data leading markets to pare bets for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts this year. The dollar was trading at 147.55 yen , up 0.7% . Strong resistance can be seen at 148.45(38.2 %fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 150.80 (50%fib). On the downside, immediate support is seen at 145.43(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 143.00(Lower BB).
Equities Recap
European shares started the week on a positive note on Monday, as investors prepared for U.S. inflation data to gauge the Federal Reserve's monetary policy path and a deluge of other key data from Europe.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading up at 0.31 percent, Germany's Dax was up by 0.30 percent, France’s CAC finished was down by 0.10 percent.
Commodities Recap
Oil prices rose for a fifth consecutive session on Monday, extending gains from the previous week's more than 3% rise, as U.S. recession fears eased and Middle East supply risks provided support.
Brent crude futures were up 70 cents, or 0.9%, at $80.36 a barrel by 1134 GMT while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures rose 84 cents, or 1.1%, to $77.68.
Gold prices inched higher on Monday on U.S. interest rate cut optimism and brewing geopolitical tensions, while traders looked to key U.S. inflation data due later this week for more monetary policy cues.
Spot gold rose 0.5% to $2,442.38 per ounce as of 0856 GMT. U.S. gold futures gained 0.3% at $2,481.50.
