Market Roundup
•German Nov Retail Sales (YoY) 5.6%,3.9% forecast, 8.2% previous
•German Nov Retail Sales (MoM) 1.9%, -2.0% forecast, 2.6% previous
•Swiss Dec CPI (MoM) -0.1%,-0.1% forecast, -0.2% previous
•Swiss Dec CPI (YoY) -0.8%,-0.7% forecast, -0.7% previous
•German Dec Unemployment Rate 6.1%, 6.1% forecast, 6.1% previous
•German Dec Unemployment n.s.a. 2.707M, 2.699M previous
•German Dec Unemployment 2.776M, 2.817M previous
•German Dec Unemployment Change -37K, 10K forecast, -39K previous
•EU Nov M3 Money Supply (YoY) 11.0%,10.6% forecast, 10.5% previous
•Canadian Nov IPPI (MoM) -0.6% , -0.4% previous
•Canadian Nov IPPI (YoY) 0.0%, 0.7% previous
•Canadian Nov RMPI (YoY) -1.7% ,-0.3% previous
•Canadian Nov RMPI (MoM) 0.6% ,0.5% previous
Looking Ahead - Economic Data (GMT)
•13:55 US Redbook (YoY) 8.9% previous
•13:55 US Redbook (MoM) 0.4% previous
• 15:00 US Dec ISM Manufacturing PMI 56.6 forecast, 57.5 previous
• 15:00 US Dec ISM Manufacturing Prices 65.7 forecast, 65.4 previous
• 15:00 US Dec ISM Manufacturing Employment 48.4 previous
• 15:00 US Dec ISM Manufacturing New Orders Index 65.1 previous
• 16:30 US 4-Week Bill Auction 0.080% previous
• 16:30 US 8-Week Bill Auction 0.090% previous
Looking Ahead - Events, Other Releases (GMT)
• 20:45 US FOMC Member Williams Speaks
• 20:45 US Chicago Fed President Evans Speaks
Fx Beat
EUR/USD: The euro edged higher against dollar on Tuesday as investors were keen to bet on a powerful combination of European Central Bank bond-buying and the European Union’s recovery fund propped up the euro. Combination of ECB bond-buying and the EU recovery fund, which is seen as limiting the economic fallout from COVID-19 in the hardest-hit European countries, such as Italy, gave investors an incentive to buy euro zone government bonds .Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2289 (Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2307 (23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2243 (5EMA), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2208 (38.2%fib).
GBP/USD: The British pound steadied on Tuesday but held well below a more than 2-1/2 year high of $1.37 hit in the previous session as a new lockdown deflated post Brexit-deal optimism. Prime Minister Boris Johnson ordered England into a new national lockdown to contain a surge in COVID-19 cases that threatens to overwhelm parts of the health system before a vaccine programme reaches a critical mass.The new measures which could cost about 10% of economic output for as long as they last, according to some analysts, deflated any lingering bullishness around the British currency and sent it tumbling 1% from the May 2018 highs. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3611 (38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3686 (23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3547 (50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3481 (61.8%fib).
USD/CHF: The dollar declined against the Swiss franc on Tuesday after China lifted its official yuan exchange rate by its highest margin since it abandoned a dollar peg in 2005, helping support demand for other currencies. China’s central bank set the official yuan midpoint at 6.4760 per dollar before the market opened, up 1% from the previous fix, the biggest change higher since 2005. At 13:30 GMT, the dollar was 0.07 percent lower versus the Swiss franc at 0.8805 . Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.8843(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.8857 (11DMA).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.8785 (23.6% fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.8700(Psychological level).
USD/JPY: The dollar declined against the Japanese yen on Tuesday as dollar struggled amid new COVID lockdowns in Europe and Senate runoff races in Georgia that will affect incoming U.S. President Joe Biden’s ability to pursue his preferred economic policies. Markets were watching to see whether Tuesday’s Georgia run-off election enable the Democrats to flip both Senate seats and disrupt what markets view as a delicate political balance in Washington. At (GMT 13:30), the yen was last up 0.19 % at 102.89. Strong resistance can be seen at 102.89 (38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 103.09 (50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 102.79(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 102.61 (Lower BB).
Equities Recap
European shares edged up on Tuesday, lifted by oil and retail stocks, while investors looked past a new national lockdown in Britain to contain a surge in coronavirus cases.
At (GMT 13:30 ),UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading up at 0.04 percent, Germany's Dax was down by 0.78 percent, France’s CAC finished was down by 0.72 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices hit a two-month high on Tuesday, lifted by a lacklustre dollar as investors awaited the U.S. Senate runoffs in Georgia that will determine which party controls Congress and prospects for additional fiscal stimulus.
Spot gold was up 0.3% at $1,948.80 an ounce by 1234 GMT, having touched its highest since Nov. 9 at $1,950.34. U.S. gold futures gained 0.3% to $1,952.20.
Oil prices rose by around $1 on Tuesday as tension simmered following Iran’s seizure of a South Korean vessel and as the OPEC+ group studied a possible production cut in February.
Brent crude futures for March rose 96 cents to $52.05 a barrel by 1206 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude for February was at $48.53 a barrel, up 91 cents.
