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Europe Roundup: Sterling at 1-week trough amid growing Brexit uncertainty, Swiss franc off highs after SNB cuts inflation outlook, European shares slump - Thursday, March 21st, 2019

Market Roundup

  • EUR/USD -0.06%, USD/JPY -0.21%, GBP/USD -0.2%, EUR/GBP 0.1%
     
  • DXY 0.29%, DAX -0.25%, FTSE 0.4%, Brent -0.26%, Gold 0.41%
     
  • EU summit readies for Brexit in May - or next week
     
  • Brexit delay concerns bubble up in FX derivative markets
     
  • Britain says EU could hold emergency summit to offer conditional Brexit extension
     
  • China says top U.S. trade officials to visit Beijing March 28-29
     
  • Great Britain Feb Retail Sales MM, 0.4%, -0.4% f'cast, 1.0% prev, 0.9% r'vsd
     
  • Great Britain Feb Retail Sales YY, 4.0%, 3.3 % f'cast, 4.2% prev, 4.1% r'vsd
     
  • Great Britain Feb Retail Sales Ex-Fuel MM, 0.2%, -0.4% f'cast, 1.2% prev, 1.1% r'vsd
     
  • China lifts yuan mid-point to highest in 8 months
     
  • Oil holds near 2019 peak as global supplies tighten
     

Economic Data Ahead

  • (0800 ET/1200 GMT) The Bank of England policymakers will meet to vote on interest rate decision
    .
  • (0830 ET/1230 GMT) The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits is likely to have decreased by 4,000 to a seasonally adjusted 225,000 for the week ended Mar. 15, while continuing claims for the week ended Mar. 8 is expected to decline to 1.772 million from 1.776 million.
     
  • (0830 ET/1230 GMT) Philadelphia Federal Reserve manufacturing survey is likely to show that business activity increased to 4.5 in March after declining 4.1 in February.
     
  • (0830 ET/1230 GMT) Canadian wholesale trade is likely to have rose 0.5 percent in January from a rise of 0.3 percent in the month of December.
     
  • (0830 ET/1230 GMT) The Statistics Canada releases employment report for February. The economy added 35,400 jobs in the previous month.
     
  • (1030 ET/1430 GMT) The Energy Information Administration (EIA) reports its Natural Gas Storage for the week ending March 15.
     
  • (1000 ET/1500 GMT) The European Commission releases Eurozone's preliminary Consumer Confidence reading for the month of March. The index posted a final reading of -7.4 in the prior month.
     

FX Beat

DXY: The dollar index rose after falling to a 6-1/2 week trough in the prior session on Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decision that drove the U.S. benchmark Treasury yields to their lowest since early 2018. The greenback against a basket of currencies traded 0.3 percent up at 96.18, having touched a low of 95.74 on Wednesday, its lowest since Feb 4. FxWirePro's Hourly Dollar Strength Index stood at -95.43 (Slightly Bearish) by 1000 GMT.

EUR/USD: The euro retreated from a 1-1/2 month peak, as the greenback rebounded from recent lows after U.S. President Donald Trump warned that Washington may leave tariffs on Chinese goods for a substantial period to ensure Beijing's compliance with any trade deal. The European currency traded 0.1 percent down at 1.1400, having touched a high of 1.1448 on Wednesday, its highest since Feb. 4. FxWirePro's Hourly Euro Strength Index stood at 45.96 (Neutral) by 1000 GMT. Immediate resistance is located at 1.1460 (Feb 4 High), a break above targets 1.1488 (Feb 1 High). On the downside, support is seen at 1.1370 (Jan. 17 Low), a break below could drag it till 1.1336 (Jan. 22 Low).

USD/JPY: The dollar plunged to a 5-week low as a surprise cut in U.S. growth forecast added to concerns on global economic slowdown. The major was trading 0.2 percent down at 110.47, having hit a low of 110.29 earlier, its lowest since Feb. 15. FxWirePro's Hourly Yen Strength Index stood at 42.40 (Neutral) by 1000 GMT. Investors’ will continue to track the broad-based market sentiment, ahead of the U.S. unemployment benefit claims. Immediate resistance is located at 110.95 (Feb. 20 High), a break above targets 111.23 (Feb. 25 High). On the downside, support is seen at 110.25 (Feb. 15 Low), a break below could take it lower at 109.63 (Dec. 31 Low).

GBP/USD: Sterling slumped to a 1-week trough amid growing uncertainty over British Prime Minister Theresa May's request to European Union officials to delay Brexit. The major traded 0.4 percent down at 1.3134, having hit a low of 1.3120 earlier; it’s lowest since Mar. 13. FxWirePro's Hourly Sterling Strength Index stood at -70.23 (Bearish) 1000 GMT. Immediate resistance is located at 1.3254 (Mar. 4 High), a break above could take it near 1.3288 (Mar. 12 High). On the downside, support is seen at 1.3097 (Mar. 5 Low), a break below targets 1.3056 (Mar. 13 Low). Against the euro, the pound was trading 0.3 percent down at 86.70 pence, having hit a low of 86.83, it’s lowest since Feb. 25.

USD/CHF: The Swiss franc eased from a 2-month peak set in the prior session after the Swiss National Bank cut its inflation outlook for the Swiss economy as it remained committed to its ultra-loose monetary path. The major trades 0.1 percent up at 0.9940, having touched a low of 0.9894 on Wednesday; it’s lowest since Jan. 16. FxWirePro's Hourly Swiss Franc Strength Index stood at 16.68 (Neutral) by 1000 GMT. On the higher side, near-term resistance is around 0.9974 (Jan. 24 High) and any break above will take the pair to next level till 1.0008 (Mar. 1 High). The near-term support is around 0.9895 (Jan.17 Low), and any close below that level will drag it till 0.9852 (Jan. 4 Low).

Equities Recap

European shares declined, weighed down by the impact on banks of an accommodative policy message from the U.S. Federal Reserve.

The pan-European STOXX 600 index plunged 0.2 percent at 380.00 points, while the FTSEurofirst 300 index eased 0.2 percent to 1,496.01 points.

Britain's FTSE 100 trades 0.3 percent up at 7,315.11 points, while mid-cap FTSE 250 fell 0.5 to 19,295.99 points.

Germany's DAX declined 0.4 percent at 11,561.24 points; France's CAC 40 trades 0.05 percent higher at 5,383.11 points.

Commodities Recap

Crude oil prices steadied near 2019 highs, supported by declining output from key producers due to OPEC production cuts and U.S. sanctions on Iran and Venezuela. International benchmark Brent crude was trading 0.2 percent up at $68.33 per barrel by 1016 GMT, having hit a high of $68.67 earlier, its highest since Nov. 13. U.S. West Texas Intermediate was trading 0.05 percent higher at $59.97 a barrel, after rising as high as $60.31, its highest since the Nov. 12.

Gold prices surged to a 3-week peak as the U.S. Federal Reserve ruled out chances of any interest rate hike this year. Spot gold gained 0.4 percent to $1,317.90 per ounce by 1018 GMT, having touched a high of $1,320.26, its highest since Feb 28. U.S. gold futures jumped 1.3 percent to $1,318.50 an ounce.

Treasuries Recap

The U.S. Treasuries climbed during afternoon session after the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decision was considered more dovish than the market had expected; stocks then moved into the black for a brief period. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield suffered nearly 2-1/2 percent to 2.514 percent, the super-long 30-year bond yields slipped 1 basis point to 2.965 percent and the yield on the short-term 2-year traded 1 basis point lower at 2.390 percent.

The German bund yields slumped during European session after the Federal Reserve hinted at putting a brake on further rate hikes. The German 10-year bond yields, which move inversely to its price, slumped 3-1/2 basis points to 0.046 percent, the yield on 30-year note suffered 3 basis points to 0.704 percent and the yield on short-term 2-year traded flat at -0.537 percent.

The Australian government bonds surged during Asian trading session after the Federal Reserve put a brake on further rate hikes in the economy, in its monetary policy meeting, held late yesterday. The yield on Australia’s benchmark 10-year note, which moves inversely to its price, plunged 4 basis points to 1.896 percent, the yield on the long-term 30-year bond slumped 2-1/2 basis points to 2.553 percent and the yield on short-term 2-year traded flat at 1.537 percent.

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2019-06-25 03:13:10
0m

June 25 04:00 UTC Released

THManufacturing Prod YY

Actual

-3.99 %

Forecast

-0.1 %

Previous

2.03 %

June 25 00:00 UTC Released

PHBudget Balance

Actual

2.6 -8.6

Forecast

Previous

86.9 -8.6

January 31 00:00 UTC 734787734787m

ARAnnual Primary Balance*

Actual

Forecast

2016 bln ARS

Previous

Bln AR bln ARS

January 31 00:00 UTC 734787734787m

ARAnnual Primary Balance*

Actual

Forecast

2016 bln ARS

Previous

Bln AR bln ARS

January 22 19:00 UTC 746607746607m

ARTrade Balance

Actual

Forecast

Previous

-1541 %

January 31 00:00 UTC 734787734787m

ARAnnual Primary Balance*

Actual

Forecast

2016 bln ARS

Previous

Bln AR bln ARS

January 22 19:00 UTC 746607746607m

ARTrade Balance

Actual

Forecast

Previous

-1541 %

January 31 00:00 UTC 734787734787m

ARAnnual Primary Balance*

Actual

Forecast

2016 bln ARS

Previous

Bln AR bln ARS

January 31 00:00 UTC 734787734787m

ARAnnual Primary Balance*

Actual

Forecast

2016 bln ARS

Previous

Bln AR bln ARS

January 31 00:00 UTC 734787734787m

ARAnnual Primary Balance*

Actual

Forecast

2016 bln ARS

Previous

Bln AR bln ARS

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