Market Roundup
• Spanish Unemployment Change (Oct): 22.1K, 5.2K forecast, -4.8K previous
• Spanish 12-Month Letras Auction: 1.990%, 2.006% previous
• Spanish 6-Month Letras Auction: 1.944%, 1.937% previous
• UK GBP 5-Year Treasury Gilt Auction: 3.845%, 4.004% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
• 13:30 US Exports (Aug) 280.50B previous
• 13:30 US Imports (Aug) 358.80B previous
• 13:30 US Trade Balance (Aug) -60.40B forecast, -78.30B previous
• 13:30 Canada Exports (Sep) 60.58B previous
• 13:30 Canada Imports (Sep) 66.91B previous
• 13:30 Canada Trade Balance (Sep) -6.32B previous
•13:55 US Redbook (YoY) 5.2% previous
•15:00 US Factory Orders (MoM) 1.4% forecast -1.3% previous
•15:00 US Factory orders ex transportation (MoM) (Aug) 0.6% previous
•15:00 US JOLTS Job Openings (Sep) 7.227M previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
•No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD : The euro edged lower on Tuesday as the U.S. dollar found support from waning expectations of near-term Federal Reserve easing. The Fed cut interest rates for the second time this year last week, but Chair Jerome Powell emphasized that another reduction in 2025 was “not a foregone conclusion.”Fed officials on Monday expressed diverging views on the economic outlook, a debate likely to intensify ahead of the December policy meeting, especially with key data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics delayed due to the federal government shutdown.Investors are now focused on upcoming ADP U.S. employment data due Wednesday and ISM PMI releases later this week for further guidance on the Fed’s rate path. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets now assign a 65% probability of a December rate cut, down from over 90% before Powell’s remarks. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1534(Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1604(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1475(61.8%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.14623(Lower BB).
GBP/USD: The pound slipped slower on Tuesday after finance minister Rachel Reeves reiterated her commitment to sticking to her fiscal rules in her November budget.In an unusual pre-budget appearance, Reeves outlined her budget as one defined by “hard choices,” focused on reducing Britain’s debt and preserving essential services, while hinting at possible extensive tax hikes.Reeves outlined the challenging economic backdrop she faces, citing high debt, weak productivity, and persistent inflation.Looking ahead, the Bank of England is expected to pause its rate-cutting cycle on Thursday, though recent softer inflation and wage data could strengthen the case for a cut.The odds of a quarter-point rate change stand below 40% in money markets, a shift from late October when investors anticipated no BoE action before spring. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3141(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3208(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3055(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3000(Psychological level).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar slipped lower on Tuesday after the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) left interest rates unchanged, as widely expected. The central bank held the cash rate steady at 3.60%, in line with forecasts, and signaled caution on further policy easing amid elevated underlying inflation, resilient household spending, and renewed strength in the housing market.Concluding its two-day policy meeting, the RBA warned that inflationary pressures remain persistent and said it would adjust its outlook as new data emerge.At a press conference, Governor Michele Bullock noted that the bank holds no policy bias, adding that while the current cash rate remains somewhat restrictive, the economic outlook is clouded by uncertainty.Markets saw little chance of a rate cut this week following a hotter-than-expected Q3 inflation print and now assign only slim odds to any easing in December . Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6537(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6577(61.8%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6492(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6462(23.6%fib)
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar dipped on Tuesday as Japanese yen strengthened after verbal warnings from Tokyo officials.Japan’s Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said on Tuesday the government would keep a close watch on foreign exchange movements with a strong sense of urgency as the yen slipped to fresh eight-month lows.Katayama’s comments were little changed from Friday, when she warned that authorities were keeping a vigilant watch on sharp and speculative swings in the currency market with heightened urgency.Japan’s currency hit 154.47 per dollar in early Asian hours on Tuesday, its lowest point since mid-February, reviving fears that authorities might step in to support the yen.Immediate resistance can be seen at 154.64(23.6%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 155.00 (Psychological level) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 152.78 (38.2%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 152.98 (SMA20).
Equities Recap
European shares fell on Tuesday to their lowest level in over two weeks, mirroring a broader risk-off sentiment across global markets as investors assessed a mixed set of corporate earnings results.
At (GMT 12:20 ),UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading down at 0.48 percent, Germany's Dax was down 1.15 percent, France’s CAC finished was down by 1.24 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices pared earlier losses on Tuesday, supported by a pause in the dollar’s rally and easing Treasury yields, as investors awaited key U.S. economic data later this week for further guidance on the interest rate.
Spot gold lost 0.2% to $3,994.47 per ounce, as of 1210 GMT, after declining 0.9% earlier. U.S. gold futures for December delivery eased 0.2% to $4,004.70 per ounce.
Oil prices dropped more than 1% on Tuesday, pressured by OPEC+’s decision to pause output hikes in the first quarter of next year, weak manufacturing data, and a stronger dollar that dampened market sentiment.
Brent crude futures fell 90 cents, or 1.4%, to $63.99 a barrel by 1056 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was down 95 cents, or around 1.6%, at $60.10 a barrel.
