Market Roundup
- EUR/USD 0.11%, USD/JPY 0.12%, GBP/USD 0.11%, EUR/GBP -0.03%
- DXY -0.03%, DAX -0.26%, FTSE -0.22%, Brent -0.93%, Gold -0.25%
- EZ Apr Consumer Confidence Final, -7.9, -7.9 forecast, -7.9 previous, -7.2 revised
- EZ Apr Industrial Sentiment, -4.1, -2.0 forecast, -1.7 previous, -1.6 revised
- EZ Apr Services Sentiment, 11.5, 11.1 forecast, 11.3 previous, 11.5 revised
- EZ Mar Loans to Non-Fin, 3.5 percent, 3.7 percent previous
- EZ Mar Loans to Households, 3.2 percent, 3.3 percent previous
- IT Mar Producer Prices YY, 2.9 percent, 3.1 percent previous
- UK PM May's spokesman: No way forward yet in Brexit talks with Labour
- Spain's Socialists, short of majority, weigh partners for forming government
Economic Data Ahead
- (0830 ET/1230 GMT) U.S. Mar Consumption, Adjusted MM, 0.7 percent forecast, 0.1 percent previous
- (0830 ET/1230 GMT) U.S. Mar Personal Income Consumption MM, 0.4 percent forecast, 0.2 percent previous
- (0830 ET/1230 GMT) U.S. Mar Core PCE Price Index MM, 0.1 percent forecast, 0.1 percent previous
- (1030 ET/1430 GMT) U.S. Apr Dallas Fed Mfg Business Index, 8.30 previous
Key Events Ahead
- No major events scheduled
FX Beat
DXY: DXY struggles to extend gains. Back-to-back Doji formations on the daily charts suggests indecisiveness. Break below 5-DMA (97.98) could see dip till 21-EMA at 97.40
EUR/USD: EUR/USD bounces off strong trendline support at 1.11, further weakness only on break below. The major was trading at 1.1153 at 1055 GMT. The pair stalled its recent bounce near 5-DMA which is still downward looking. Spanish political uncertainty along with mixed Eurozone macro data keeping the EUR bulls slightly cautious. Upbeat money supply data was negated by a dip in the euro bloc’s economic sentiment and confidence gauges. Major trend is bearish, but a decisive close above 5-DMA could see gains till 21-EMA at 1.1225. Break below 1.11 required for further weakness.
USD/CAD: USD/CAD regained some positive traction at the start of a new trading week. The pair has recovered slightly from poor U.S. GDP led losses. Price action stood at 1.3469 at 1100 GMT, up 0.10%. Weakness in oil prices after Trump's comments undermine Loonie and extended some support. Focus now on the release of core PCE price index - the Fed's preferred inflation gauge for further impetus. 5-DMA is immediate support at 1.3464, close below will see further weakness. Upper Bollinger Band at 1.3488 is immediate resistance ahead of 1.3555 (trendline).
AUD/USD: AUD/USD extends gains for the 3rd straight session, breaks above 5-DMA. Aussie buoyed as China’s industrial profits surged after the previous two months of deterioration. AUD/USD recovers from multi-month lows with a 'Morning Star' formation raising scope for further upside. Price action has edged above 5-DMA and we see scope for upside till 50-DMA at 0.71 Major trend is definitely bearish. Price action is currently capped at 1H 110-EMA at 0.7056. Break above to see further gains. Failure to break above 1H 110-EMA could see resumption of weakness.
USD/JPY: Greenback subdued ahead of Fed policy meeting. USD/JPY edges marginally higher, holds 200-DMA support. Since the last Fed meeting, data has been positive. Job growth, retail sales, manufacturing activity and inflation ticked higher. Markets now await to see if the FOMC policymakers will recognize the improvements in data. That said, U.S. Treasury yields edge lower, suggesting market is anticipating more dovishness coming from US policymakers. Technical indicators are inconclusive. Below 200-DMA the pair finds serious of strong support till daily cloud at 110.88. Break below cloud top to see further weakness.
Equities Recap
European indices mixed. At 1145 GMT, the pan-European STOXX 600 index was down 0.13% at 390.34 points, while the FTSEurofirst 300 index fell 0.35 percent to 1,540.78 points.
Britain's FTSE 100 trades 0.17 percent higher at 19,891.09 points, while mid-cap FTSE 250 was up 0.17 percent at 19,891.20 points.
Germany's DAX fell 0.24 percent to 12,284.80 points; France's CAC 40 trades 0.19 percent lower at 5,558.95 points.
Commodities Recap
Oil prices consolidate previous session's slump. Trump's remarks demanding producer club OPEC raise output to soften the impact of U.S. sanctions against Iran triggered a selloff.
After slipping over 3 percent on Friday's trade, Brent crude futures were at $71.59 per barrel at 0840 GMT, down 56 cents, or 0.78 percent, from their last close.
U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were at $62.93 per barrel, down 37 cents, or 0.58 percent.
Gold prices eased from 1-week highs on improved sentiment. Spot gold fell by 0.3 percent to $1,281.87 per ounce at 0847 GMT. U.S. gold futures shed 0.4 percent to $1,283.80 an ounce.
Among other metals, silver fell 0.6 percent to $14.97 per ounce, while platinum gained 0.1 percent to $895.25 and palladium fell 0.4 percent to $1,458.50,
Treasuries Recap
U.S.: The U.S. Treasuries remained flat during Monday’s afternoon session ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) monetary policy meeting, scheduled to be held on May 1 and the country’s employment report for the month of April, due by the end of this trading week. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield hovered around 2.509 percent, the super-long 30-year bond yields traded flat at 2.931 percent and the yield on the short-term 2-year too remained steady at 2.290 percent.
EUR: The German bunds slid during European trading session Monday amid a muted trading session that witnessed data of little economic significance ahead of the country’s employment report for the month of April, scheduled to be released on April 30 by 07:55GMT and the consumer price inflation (CPI) data for the similar period, due on the following day by 12:00GMT, which shall add direction to the debt market. The German 10-year bond yields, which move inversely to its price, rose 1-1/2 basis points to 0.602 percent, the yield on 30-year note also edged 1-1/2 basis points higher to 0.644 percent and the yield on short-term 2-year traded 1 basis point up at -0.601 percent.
JGBs: Japanese markets remain closed today on account of Showa Day.
AUS: Australian government bonds remained nearly flat during Asian session of the first trading day of the week Monday as investors remained side-lined amid a muted trading session that witnessed data of little economic significance. The yield on Australia’s benchmark 10-year note, which moves inversely to its price, hovered around 1.788 percent, the yield on the long-term 30-year bond edged tad higher to 2.433 percent and the yield on short-term 2-year remained flat at 1.346 percent.
