USD/JPY nears 162.00 as Japan holds back on FX intervention 
Market Roundup
• Greek HICP (YoY) (Jun) 3.9%, 4.9% previous
• Greek CPI (YoY) (Jun) 4.4%, 5.2% previous
• US Initial Jobless Claims (Jul 4) 215K, 218K forecast, 217K previous.
•US Existing Home Sales (Jun) 4.09M, 4.19M forecast, 4.19M previous.
•US Existing Home Sales (MoM) (Jun) -2.4%, 3.7% previous.
•US Natural Gas Storage 61B, 60B forecast, 87B previous.
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
• 16:30 US 4-Week Bill Auction 3.605% previous.
• 16:30 US 8-Week Bill Auction 3.650% previous.
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
• 18:30 US Fed Logan Speak
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD : The euro edged higher against the U.S. dollar on Thursday as investors weighed renewed tensions in the Persian Gulf. The U.S. military said it had completed fresh strikes on Iran aimed at ensuring the Strait of Hormuz remained open to shipping, after President Donald Trump declared that the interim agreement with Tehran was "over," raising fears of a prolonged regional conflict.Supporting the euro, German trade data surprised to the upside. Germany's exports rose 0.9% in May from the previous month, defying expectations for a decline, while imports fell 2.5%, according to the federal statistics office. As a result, the country's trade surplus widened to €19.1 billion from €14.7 billion in April.Exports to European Union countries declined 1.1% on the month, but shipments to non-EU nations climbed 3.6%, highlighting stronger demand from overseas markets. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1475(SMA 20), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1495(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1368(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1291(Lower BB).
GBP/USD: The pound eased on Thursday as investors grappled with renewed Middle East tensions.The U.S. military said on Wednesday its latest strikes were aimed at keeping the Strait of Hormuz open after it said Iranian forces had struck three tankers in the area. The assault came hours after U.S. President Donald Trump said he believed the interim ceasefire with Iran to be "over".Iranian armed forces launched attacks on U.S. military infrastructure in Gulf states on Thursday following U.S. strikes on Iran's southern coastal and eastern provinces, putting further strain on a three-week-old ceasefire agreement. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3433(Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3485(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3343(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards1.3296(SMA 20).
AUD/USD: Australian dollar strengthened as it remained resilient despite a sharp deterioration in geopolitical sentiment. Renewed U.S.-Iran hostilities failed to trigger sustained selling in the Aussie, with investors balancing heightened global risks against expectations that persistent inflationary pressures could keep interest rates elevated.Market sentiment was rattled after the U.S. launched fresh strikes on Iran, while President Donald Trump declared that the interim agreement with Tehran was "over," fueling concerns that the Middle East conflict could escalate further.Meanwhile, minutes from the Federal Reserve's June meeting reinforced a hawkish stance, showing policymakers remained increasingly concerned about stubborn inflation.Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6952 (38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6986(SMA 20).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6882(61.8%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6822(Lower BB).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar eased slightly on Thursday as renewed conflict between the United States and Iran kept investors cautious. The U.S. military confirmed it had carried out a second consecutive day of strikes on targets in Iran, marking a further escalation in tensions between the two countries. In response, Tehran warned it was preparing a large-scale retaliatory operation against U.S. military bases across the region, heightening fears of a broader conflict.Meanwhile, speculation over possible Japanese foreign exchange intervention continued to linger. Japanese authorities have previously stepped into the currency market to support the yen during periods of excessive dollar strength, prompting traders to remain cautious about pushing USD/JPY significantly higher. Immediate resistance can be seen at 162.73(23.6%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 163.00(Psychological level) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 160.81(38.2%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 159.58(50%fib).
Equities Recap
European shares rose in choppy trading on Thursday, supported by a rebound in technology stocks, as investors weighed the outlook for the conflict in the Middle East.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was down by 0.10 percent, Germany's Dax was up by 0.98percent, France’s CAC was up by 0.87 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices climbed more than 1% on Thursday as bargain hunting emerged after the precious metal slipped to a one-week low in the previous session. Investors also closely monitored developments in the Middle East, with ongoing geopolitical tensions boosting demand for safe-haven assets.
Spot gold gained 1% to $4,116.70 per ounce by 09:13 a.m. EDT (1312 GMT), after dropping to its lowest level since July 1 on Wednesday.U.S. gold futures for August delivery inched up 1.1% to $4,126.60 per ounce.
Oil prices had initially dipped in Europe, but were forced back up as Iranian armed forces responded to a second night of U.S. strikes with fresh attacks on U.S. military infrastructure in neighbouring Qatar, Kuwait and Bahrain.
Brent crude futures rose to nearly $79 from around $77 earlier in the day, bolstering what has been a 9% leap over recent days.
