Market Roundup
• German Jul Import Price Index (MoM) 2.2%,0.8% forecast, 1.6% previous
• German Jul Import Price Index (YoY) 15.0%,13.6% forecast, 12.9% previous
•French Aug Consumer Confidence 99,100 forecast, 101 previous
•Sweden GDP (YoY) 9.7%,10.0% previous
•Sweden GDP (QoQ) 0.9%, 0.9% previous
•Italian Aug Consumer Confidence 116.2,116.1 forecast, 116.6 previous
Looking Ahead –Economic Data (GMT)
•12:30 US Wholesale Inventories (MoM) 1.1% previous
•12:30 US Jul Goods Trade Balance -92.05B previous
•12:30 US Jul Retail Inventories Ex Auto 0.5% previous
•12:30 US Jul PCE Price index (YoY) 4.0 previous
•12:30 US Jul Core PCE Price Index (YoY) 3.6% forecast, 3.5% previous
•12:30 US Jul Core PCE Price Index (MoM) 0.3% forecast, 0.4% previous
•12:30 US Jul Personal Spending (MoM) 0.3% forecast, 1.0% previous
•12:30 US Jul Real Personal Consumption (MoM) 0.5% previous
•14:00 US Michigan Aug 5-Year Inflation Expectations 3.00% forecast, 2.80% previous
•14:00 US Michigan Aug Michigan Consumer Expectations 65.2 forecast, 79.0 previous
•14:00 US Aug Michigan Inflation Expectations 4.6% forecast, 4.7% previous
•14:00 US Aug Michigan Current Conditions 77.9 forecast, 84.5 previous
•15:00 Canada Jun Budget Balance -13.98B previous
•14:00 US Michigan Aug Consumer Sentiment 70.7 forecast, 70.2 previous
•17:00 U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count 397 previous
Looking Ahead - Events, Other Releases (GMT)
•13:00 Jackson Hole Symposium
•14:00 Fed Chair Powell Speaks
Fx Beat
EUR/USD: The euro inched higher against dollar on Friday as traders eyed U.S. inflation data and Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s speech at the Jackson Hole symposium for further clues on when the U.S. central bank might start pulling back stimulus. Powell’s speech follows at 1400 GMT and will be watched for any signs of when the Fed might start slowing its bond purchases as the first step in scaling back its pandemic stimulus. The euro was little changed at $1.1754. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1791 (50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1852 (61.8%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1734 (38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1663(23.6%fib).
GBP/USD: Britain’s pound was pinned near the $1.37 mark on Friday and set for its first weekly gain on the dollar since the end of July, as a recovery in global risk sentiment helped lend support to riskier and growth-correlated currencies. External drivers, such as movements in the dollar on the back of risk sentiment in world stock markets, have largely driven sterling in recent weeks. Earlier this year, Britain’s pace of COVID-19 vaccinations and a broader reflation trade in global markets allowed the pound to be the best performer among its G10 currency peers, but it has since lost that lead as the U.S. Federal Reserve begins to hint towards future tapering of its stimulus programme. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3727 (38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3791(50%fib ).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3650 (23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3612 (Lower BB).
USD/CHF: The dollar rose against the Swiss franc on Friday as investors awaited a highly anticipated speech by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, with analysts now doubting the central bank's boss will hint when he may start to trim asset purchases. The market was focused this week on what signals the U.S. central bank could send at its annual Jackson Hole conference, which kicked off on Thursday in virtual format, with the main event being Powell's speech on Friday. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.9200 (23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.9251 (Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.9150(38.2% fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.9115 (61.8%fib).
USD/JPY: The dollar strengthened against the Japanese yen on Friday as investors caught their breath ahead of a much-anticipated speech by the U.S. Fed chief that could give clues about when the central bank will start tapering its bond-buying programme .Market moves were small as many traders kept their powder dry ahead of the main market event of the week. Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech at 1400 GMT in the Kansas City Fed’s central banking conference, normally held in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, which has been used by the bank in the past to provide guidance on future policy. Strong resistance can be seen at 104.48 (38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 104.93 (23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 104.11(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 103.73 (61.8%fib).
Equities Recap
European stocks were flat on Friday ahead of U.S. Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell’s speech that could offer hints on the timeline for slowing of its bond purchases programme.
At (GMT 10:46 ),UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading down at 0.03% percent, Germany's Dax was down by 0.02 percent, France’s CAC was last down by 0.12 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices firmed on Friday, benefiting in part from market uncertainty about direction on stimulus tapering from the U.S. Federal Reserve chief and concerns over rising COVID-19 cases.
Spot gold was up 0.2% at $1,795.65 per ounce by 0923 GMT and is up about 1% for the week so far.U.S. gold futures rose 0.2% to $1,798.90.
Oil prices rose on Friday, on track to post big gains for the week, on worries about supply disruptions as energy companies began shutting production in the Gulf of Mexico ahead of a possible hurricane forecast to hit on the weekend.
Brent crude futures rose 72 cents, or 1%, to $71.79 a barrel at 0855 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures climbed 80 cents, or 1.2%, to $68.22 a barrel.
