- Euro slips to 6 week low after Greece approves bailout plan.
- EUR/USD tests 1.0895 from 1.0963 Asian highs.
- EUR/GBP makes fresh 8 year low at 0.6970 from 0.7008.
- NZD/USD hit a 6 year low at 0.6498 after weak inflation data.
- Greek parliament votes to approve austerity measures.
- Syriza divided, 32 of 149 Syriza lawmakers voted NO or abstained.
- IMF's Lagarde- Greek bailout talks will be a colossal challenge.
- Tsipras- Don't believe in most the measures but must implement them.
- Bild- Grexit possibility is off the table but still in the draw.
- Slovak Finance Minister Kazimir- Greek vote was the easy part.
- Finnish Parliament approves new Greek bailout deal.
- Germany's Schaeuble still thinks temporary Grexit a good idea.
- Greece licks wounds after bailout vote, ECB move expected.
- Euro zone May trade balance NSA 18.8bln vs previous 24.9bln.
- Euro zone June Inflation final 0.0% m/m, 0.2% y/y vs previous 0.2%/0.2%. 0.0%/0.2% expected.
- Switzerland May Retail sales -1.8% y/y vs previous 1.6%.
- Moody's raises Swiss banking system's outlook to stable vs negative.
- (0830 ET/1230 GMT) US weekly initial jobless claims, 285k eyed; last 297k.
- (0830 ET/1230 GMT) US Continued Claims (July 4 week) consensus 2.295 mn, previous 2.334 mn.
- (1000 ET/1400 GMT) US July Philly Fed business sentiment index, 12.0 eyed; last 15.2.
- (1000 ET/1400 GMT) US July NAHB housing market index, 60.0 eyed; last 59.0.
Key Events Ahead
- (0745 ET/1145 GMT) ECB policy announcement, no change in 0.05% refinance, -0.2% deposit rates eyed.
- (0830 ET/1230 GMT) ECB President Draghi press conference.
- (1145 ET/1545 GMT) Fed Trade operation 30-yr Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac (max $1.625 bn).
- (1430 ET/1830 GMT) Fed Trade operation 15-yr Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac (max $475 mn).
- (1430 ET/1830 GMT) Yellen delivers Fed Chair's Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to the Congress.
- (1600 ET/2000 GMT) Treasury International Capital Statistics (May).
FX Recap
EUR/USD is supported around 1.0900 levels and currently trading at 1.0895 levels. It has made intraday high at 1.0961 and low at 1.0886 levels The euro fell to six-week low after Greece approved the bailout plan, by 0844 GMT the euro was 0.4 percent weaker at $1.0903, its lowest in six weeks. The CPI reading in the euro area came in at 0.2% in the sixth month of the year on an annual basis, after 0.3% growth recorded in the previous month. Meanwhile, core inflation hit 0.8%, a slight decline when compared to last month's reading of 0.9%. Further data showed the trade surplus shrunk to a seasonally adjusted €21.2 billion during May, down from €24.3 billion. Ahead in the day, the spot could be influenced by Draghi's comments on Greece and weekly US jobless claims. Initial support is seen around at 1.0842 and resistance at 1.1243 levels. Option expiries are at 1.0900 (364M), 1.0925 (421M), 1.1000 (1.1BLN).
USD/JPY is supported around 124.00 levels and posted a high of 124.03 levels. It has made intraday low at 123.68 and currently trading at 124.00 levels. The major clinches on to gains as the USD remains firmer supported by the recent macro releases from the US while awaiting fresh insights from Fed Chair Yellen's testimony. The greenback strengthened on Wednesday, supported by solid US PPI and industrial production figures. Further, the greenback also received a boost from somewhat hawkish remarks of Yellen, who stated that the Fed is on to raise rates this year. Near term resistance is seen at 124.57 and support is seen at 120.63 levels. Option expiries are at 123.00 (500M), 123.50 (722M), 124.00 (1.3BLN).
GBP/USD is supported around $1.5600 levels. It made an intraday high at 1.5649 and low at 1.5607 levels. Pair is currently trading at 1.5618 levels. Sterling rose 0.2 pct against the euro at 69.795 pence on Thursday, its strongest level in 7-1/2-years, as traders bet the Bank of England will raise interest rates early next year while monetary policy remains ultra-loose in the euro zone. Sterling was 0.1 percent lower against a dollar boosted by Yellen's comments at $1.5622. Today was data thin calendar for the UK. Market will eye on ECB rate decision as well as macro economic data from the US. Initial support is seen at 1.5413 and resistance is seen around 1.5734 levels. Option expiry is at 1.5550 (456M).
NZDUSD is supported around 0.6500 levels and trading at 0.6520 levels and made intraday low at 0.6497 and high at 0.6601 levels. The kiwi hit its lowest in 6 years as downbeat domestic inflation figures add to speculation that the RBNZ will cut rates next week. Moreover, global dairy prices tumbled over 10% at the GDT auction, also causing negative drag on the NZD/USD. The CPI rose 0.4% in the June quarter, according to Statistics New Zealand, coming in slightly lower than the 0.5% rate forecast by markets. Initial support is seen at 0.6465 and resistance at 0.6600 levels.
AUD/USD is supported around 0.7400 levels and trading at 0.7398 levels. It has made intraday high at 0.7403 levels and low at 0.7348 levels. The overnight session put the Aussie under pressure from various sides, but it was the stronger greenback that weighed the most. Moreover, weak NZ CPI data also contributed to the downside. There are no Australian data due for release today while good-looking Chinese data yesterday failed to spark a sustainable rally in AUD. Tonight's US session will remain again in focus with Fed Chair Janet Yellen's round two and more US data. Initial support is seen at 0.7325 and resistance at 0.7647 levels. Option expiries are at 0.7500 (6.5BLN), 0.7400 (1.8BLN), 0.7300 (3.8BLN).
