Market Roundup
•French Manufacturing PMI (Oct) 44.5, 44.9 forecast, 44.6 previous
•French S&P Global Composite PMI (Oct) 47.3, 49.0 forecast, 48.6 previous
•French Services PMI (Oct) 48.3, 49.8 forecast, 49.6 previous
•German Composite PMI (Oct) 48.4, 47.6 forecast, 47.5 previous
•German Manufacturing PMI (Oct) 42.6, 40.7 forecast, 40.6 previous
•German Services PMI (Oct) 51.4, 50.6 forecast, 50.6 previous
•French Business Survey (Oct) 92, 98 forecast, 99 previous
•German Composite PMI (Oct) 48.4, 47.6 forecast, 47.5 previous
•German Manufacturing PMI (Oct) 42.6, 40.7 forecast, 40.6 previous
•German Services PMI (Oct) 51.4, 50.6 forecast, 50.6 previous
•EU Manufacturing PMI (Oct) 45.9, 45.1 forecast, 45.0 previous
•EU S&P Global Composite PMI (Oct) 49.7, 49.8 forecast, 49.6 previous
•EU Services PMI (Oct) 51.2, 51.5 forecast, 51.4 previous
•UK Composite PMI (Oct) 51.7, 52.6 forecast, 52.6 previous
•UK Manufacturing PMI (Oct) 50.3, 51.5 forecast, 51.5 previous
•UK Services PMI (Oct) 51.8, 52.3 forecast, 52.4 previous
•UK CBI Industrial Trends Orders (Oct) -27, -28 forecast, -35 previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
•12:30 US Building Permits (Sep) 1.428M forecast, 1.470M previous
•12:30 US Building Permits (MoM) (Sep) -2.9% forecast, 4.6% previous
•12:30 USD Chicago Fed National Activity (Sep) 0.12 previous
•12:30 US Continuing Jobless Claims 1,880K forecast, 1,867K previous
•12:30 US Initial Jobless Claims 243K forecast, 241K previous
•12:30 US Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg. 236.25K previous
•12:30 Canada New Housing Price Index (MoM) (Sep) 0.0% previous
•13:45 US Manufacturing PMI (Oct) 47.5 forecast, 47.3 previous
•13:45 US S&P Global Composite PMI (Oct) 54.0 previous
•13:45 US Services PMI (Oct) 55.0 forecast, 55.2 previous
•14:00 US New Home Sales (MoM) (Sep) -4.7% previous
•14:00 US New Home Sales (Sep) 719K forecast, 716K previous
•14:30 US Natural Gas Storage 61B forecast, 76B previous
•15:00 US KC Fed Composite Index (Oct) -8 previous
•15:00 US KC Fed Manufacturing Index (Oct) -18 previous
•15:30 US 4-Week Bill Auction 4.700% previous
•15:30 US 8-Week Bill Auction 4.630% previous
Looking Ahead
•13:00 UK BoE Deputy Governor Woods Speaks
•13:00 UK BoE MPC Member Mann
•13:30 German Buba Vice President Buch Speaks
•15:00 ECB McCaul Speaks
•15:20 UK BoE Gov Bailey Speaks
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro edged higher on Thursday as a slightly better-than-expected reading in Germany's purchasing managers index, a gauge of the health of the private sector, gave the euro a slight lift. German business activity contracted in October but less steeply than the previous month, according to a survey published on Thursday. The HCOB German flash composite Purchasing Managers index, compiled by S&P Global, rose to 48.4 from 47.5 in September, beating analysts forecasts for a reading of 47.6. Any reading below 50 indicates contraction. The euro edged up 0.2% to $1.0799. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0816(SMA5 ), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0847(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0785(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0700(Psychological level).
GBP/USD: Sterling firmed against the dollar on Thursday as investors assessed the outlook for the Bank of England's monetary policy. The Bank of England needs to improve the ways it is able to track developments in the non-banking system, which is less transparent relative to the banking system, Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey said on Tuesday.The pound firmed 0.4% to $1.29695 against the dollar, not far from the $1.30 mark after sliding to the lowest since mid-August in the previous session. On the data front, survey of British business activity showed companies reported the slowest growth in 11 months in October, as uncertainty ahead of the Labour government's first budget dampened confidence. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3054(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3123(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2912(Oct 23rd low), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2901 (Lower BB).
NZD/USD: New Zealand dollar traded around 0.6030 level on after a selloff in the previous session driven by jitters about the upcoming U.S. presidential election.The dollar got a boost as investors no longer expect an outsized 50-basis-point rate cut from the Federal Reserve, a view that is reflected in rising Treasury yields.The dollar was also supported by anticipation that Donald Trump could win a second term as U.S. president, as his tax and tariff policies are considered inflationary, which markets anticipate would keep U.S. rates high and hit trading partner currencies.. The kiwi dollar recovered 0.2% to $0.6030, after declining 0.6% overnight to a fresh two-month low of $0.5993Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6116(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6161 (50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6059 (23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6000(Psychological level).
USD/JPY: The dollar eased from three month high against the yen on Thursday after Japan's finance minister said officials are watching exchange-rate moves with heightened vigilance.BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda said overnight it was "still taking time" to sustainably achieve the central bank's 2% inflation target, and signaled that rate hikes would be done cautiously and gradually . But he also warned of the cost of moving too slowly, which could encourage speculators to push the yen lower.The central bank's next policy decision is on Oct. 31, and it is widely expected to stand pat this time. Immediate resistance can be seen at 153.12 (23.6 %fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 153.00(Psychological level). On the downside, immediate support is seen at 152.23(Daily low), a break below could take the pair towards 150.88(38.2%fib)
Equities Recap
European shares and U.S. stock futures rallied on Thursday after equity markets suffered a sell-off the previous day.
At (GMT 12:20 ),UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading up at 0.43 percent, Germany's Dax was up by 0.68 percent, France’s CAC finished was up by 0.54 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices firmed on Thursday as the bullion remained in demand in the face of ongoing geopolitical risks, while palladium jumped 8% to a near 10-month peak on fears of supply sanctions on top-producer Russia.
Spot gold rose 0.7% to $2,736.30 per ounce by 0958 GMT after pulling back from the record high of $2,758.37 on Wednesday. U.S. gold futures gained 0.7% to $2,749.20.
Oil prices were broadly stable on Thursday as uncertainty around conflict in the Middle East and reports of North Korean troops ready to help Russia in Ukraine kept traders on edge ahead of the U.S. presidential election.
Brent crude futures were up 29 cents, or 0.4%, at $75.25 a barrel by 1157 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures rose 33 cents, or 0.5%, to $71.10.
