Market Roundup
•German Apr Retail Sales (MoM) -1.2%, -0.2% forecast, 1.8% previous
•German Apr Retail Sales (YoY) -0.6% , 0.3% previous
•German Apr Import Price Index (YoY) -1.7%, -1.8% forecast, -3.6% previous
•UK May Nationwide HPI (MoM) 0.4%, 0.1% forecast, -0.4% previous
•UK May Nationwide HPI (YoY) 1.3%, 0.6% previous
•French Apr Consumer Spending (MoM) -0.8%,0.2% forecast, 0.4% previous
•French GDP (QoQ) (Q1) 0.2%,0.2% forecast, 0.1% previous
•French May CPI (MoM) 0.0%,0.1% forecast, 0.5% previous
•French May French CPI (YoY) 2.2%,2.4% forecast, 2.2% previous
•French HICP (MoM) 0.2%, 0.2% forecast, 0.6% previous
• French GDP (YoY) 1.1%,1.1% forecast, 0.7% previous
• EU May CPI (YoY) 2.7%,2.5% forecast, 2.4% previous
• EU Core CPI (YoY) 2.6%, 2.7% forecast, 2.7% previous
• EU CPI (MoM) 2.9%, 0.6% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
• 12:30 Canada GDP (QoQ) (Q1) 0.2% previous
• 12:30 Canada GDP Annualized (QoQ) (Q1) 2.2% forecast, 1.0% previous
• 12:30 Canada GDP Implicit Price (QoQ) (Q1) 1.40% previous
• 12:30 US Apr Personal Income (MoM) 0.3% forecast, 0.5% previous
• 12:30 US Apr Real Personal Consumption (MoM) 0.5% previous
• 12:30 US Apr Personal Spending (MoM) 0.3% forecast, 0.8% previous
• 12:30 US Apr PCE Price index (YoY) 2.7% forecast, 2.7% previous
• 12:30 US Apr PCE price index (MoM) 0.3% forecast, 0.3% previous
• 12:30 US Apr Core PCE Price Index (MoM) 0.3% forecast, 0.3% previous
• 12:30 Canada GDP (YoY) (Q1) 0.93% previous
• 12:30 US Apr Core PCE Price Index (YoY) 2.8% forecast, 2.8% previous
• 12:30 Canada Mar GDP (MoM) 0.0% forecast, 0.2% previous
• 13:00 US Apr Dallas Fed PCE 2.90% previous
•13:45 US May Chicago PMI 41.1 forecast, 37.9 previous
•13:45 US Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q2)3.5% forecast, 3.5% previous
•15:00 Canada Mar Budget Balance (YoY) -25.70B previous
•17:00 U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count 497 previous
•17:00 U.S. Baker Hughes Total Rig Count600 previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
•No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro strengthened on Friday after data showed price pressures in the euro zone picked up faster than expected in May, complicating the outlook for the European Central Bank.Euro zone inflation rose in May, data showed on Friday, in a sign the European Central Bank still faces a slow and uncertain journey to reach its goal of fully reining in prices.The bigger-than-expected increase in inflation was unlikely to stop the ECB from lowering borrowing costs from a record high next week, but may cement the case for a pause in July and a slower pace of interest rate reductions in the coming months.cked up faster than expected in May, complicating the outlook for the European Central Bank. The euro rose 0.2% to $1.0854. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0878(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0908(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0798 (38.2% fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0739(50% fib).
GBP/USD: Sterling eased on Friday as investors awaited inflation readings from the U.S. that will likely dictate the path of interest rates globally. Investors were on edge as they braced for a set of pivotal data U.S. Federal Reserve's favored inflation metric, the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) index, both set to unfold later in the day. Fed policymakers have urged patience on rate cuts, saying they need to see several months of data to be sure inflation is heading back down to the central bank's 2% target. Futures that track the fed funds rate show investors pricing in just 35 basis points of rate cuts this year. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2778(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2817(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2683(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2621(50% fib).
USD/CHF: The dollar edged higher against the Swiss franc on Friday ahead of a closely watched inflation report that will likely provide markets with some direction about the scale and pace of interest-rate reductions by the Federal Reserve this year. All eyes will now be on April's core Personal Consumption Expenditure data, the central bank's preferred inflation gauge, due at 8:30 a.m. ET. The index is expected to be unchanged from the previous month at 2.8%, on an annual basis. The dollar index fell 0.1% to 104.61, having hit a two-week high on Thursday. The index, which measures the performance of the U.S. currency against six others, is set for a drop of 1.6% in May, its largest monthly loss since December. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.9103 (38.2% fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.9141 (Daily high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.9033(50% fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.9008(Lower BB).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar strengthened against yen on Friday after Japan's finance minister repeated warnings about excessive currency volatility.Data on Friday showed core consumer inflation in Tokyo accelerated in May, but price growth excluding the effect of fuel eased, heightening uncertainty over the timing of the Bank of Japan's next rate hike. BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda has said the central bank will raise interest rates from current near-zero levels if underlying inflation, which takes into account CPI and broader price gauges, accelerates toward 2% as it currently projects.The yen has steadily slipped closer to the 34-year low of 160.245 from a month ago, a level which market players suspect triggered two rounds of dollar-selling intervention by Tokyo.. Strong resistance can be seen at 157.40(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 157.89(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 155.77(50% fib), a break below could take the pair towards 155.00(Psychological level).
Equities Recap
European shares struggled for direction on Friday ahead of the May inflation reading for the euro zone and an April reading for the United States that will decide the scale and timing of interest rate cuts globally.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last up by 0.62 percent, Germany's Dax was last down by 0.01 percent, France’s CAC was last up by 0.10 percent.
Commodities Recap
Oil prices held steady on Friday as investors awaited U.S. inflation data for clues on the demand outlook before turning attention to Sunday's OPEC+ meeting to determine the state of supply into next year.
Brent futures for July delivery were down 5 cents at $81.81 a barrel by 1135 GMT while the more liquid August futures were up 21 cents at $82.09.
