Market Roundup
- United Kingdom Q3 2018 business invest qq prelim decrease to -1.2 % (forecast 0.2 %) vs previous -0.7 %
- United Kingdom Q3 2018 business invest yy prelim decrease to -1.9 % vs previous -0.2 %
- United Kingdom Q3 2018 GDP prelim yy increase to 1.5 % (forecast 1.5 %) vs previous 1.2 %
- United Kingdom Sep 2018 services mm increase to -0.1 %
- United Kingdom Sep 2018 construction o/p vol mm increase to 3 % vs previous 0.5 % (revised from -0.7 %)
- United Kingdom Sep 2018 manufacturing output yy decrease to 0.5 % (forecast 0.4 %) vs previous 1.3 %
- United Kingdom Sep 2018 goods trade bal. non-EU increase to -2.34 GBP (forecast -3.9 GBP) vs previous -4.56 GBP (revised from -4.22 GBP)
- United Kingdom Sep 2018 goods trade balance GBP increase to -9.73 GBP (forecast -11.25 GBP) vs previous -11.72 GBP (revised from -11.2 GBP)
- United Kingdom Sep 2018 construction o/p vol YY increase to 1.7 % (forecast 1.1 %) vs previous -0.3 % (revised from 0.3 %)
- United Kingdom Sep 2018 GDP estimate YY increase to 1.5 % (forecast 1.5 %) vs previous 1.4 % (revised from 1.5 %)
- United Kingdom Sep 2018 manufacturing output mm increase to 0.2 % (forecast 0.1 %) vs previous -0.1 % (revised from -0.2 %)
- United Kingdom Sep 2018 services YY stays flat at 1.6 % vs previous 1.6 %
- United Kingdom Sep 2018 GDP estimate 3m/3m decrease to 0.6 % (forecast 0.6 %) vs previous 0.7 %
- United Kingdom q3 2018 GDP prelim qq increase to 0.6 % (forecast 0.6 %) vs previous 0.4 %
- France Sep 2018 industrial output mm decrease to -1.8 % (forecast -0.3 %) vs previous 0.2 % (revised from 0.3 %)
- Greece Oct 2018 Harmonised CPI YY increase to 1.8 % vs previous 1.1 %
- Greece Sep 2018 industrial output yy increase to 2 % vs previous 1 % (revised from 1.4 %)
- Greece Oct 2018 CPI yy increase to 1.8 % vs previous 1.1 %
Economic Data Ahead
- (0830 ET/1330 GMT) The U.S. producer price index is likely to have increased 0.2 percent in October, while in the 12 months through the same period, it is expected to have advanced 2.6 percent. PPI excluding food and energy probably edged up 0.2 percent after posting similar gains in September.
- (1000 ET/1500 GMT) The University of Michigan is likely to report that U.S. preliminary consumer sentiment index declined to 98.0 in November, after posting a final reading of 98.6 in October.
- (1000 ET/1500 GMT) The U.S. Census Bureau is likely to report that wholesale inventories rose 0.3 percent in September, after posting a similar gain in the prior month.
- (1300 ET/1800 GMT) Baker Hughes reports U.S. Oil Rig Count.
Key Events Ahead
- (0830 ET/1330 GMT) Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams will give opening remarks before the Investing in America's Workforce Book Launch in New York
- (0845 ET/1345 GMT) Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia President Patrick Harker is scheduled to speak on "Workforce Investment by Sector" at the same event
- (0905 ET/1405 GMT) Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Randal Quarles will speak on "Stress Testing" before Brookings Institution event: "The Future of Financial Regulation," in Washington.
- (0930 ET/1830 GMT) Bank of England Chief Economist Andy Haldane speaks in London
FX Beat
DXY: The dollar index rallied to a 1-week peak as the Federal Reserve is widely expected to hike interest rates in December, which would be its fourth hike this year. The greenback against a basket of currencies trades 0.2 percent up at 96.84, having touched a high of 96.92, its highest since November 1. FxWirePro's Hourly Dollar Strength Index stood at 76.12 (Slightly Bullish) by 1000 GMT.
EUR/USD: The euro slumped to an over 1-week low after data showed French industrial output contracted by more than expected in September, while, concerns over the bloc's slowing economic growth and a rift between the EU and Italy over the budget deficit continued to weigh on investor sentiment. The European currency traded 0.2 percent down at 1.1346, having touched a low of 1.1345 earlier, its lowest since November 1. FxWirePro's Hourly Euro Strength Index stood at -46.12 (Neutral) by 1000 GMT. Immediate resistance is located at 1.1420 (October 26 High), a break above targets 1.1550 (October 22 High). On the downside, support is seen at 1.1302 (October 31 Low), a break below could drag it till 1.1264.
USD/JPY: The dollar slumped as the yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasuries fell nearly 2-1/2 basis points to 3.210 percent. However, the U.S. Federal Reserve's monetary tightening stance limited the downside. The major was trading 0.2 percent down at 113.81, having hit a high of 114.08 on Thursday, its highest since October 5. FxWirePro's Hourly Yen Strength Index stood at -46.51 (Neutral) by 1000 GMT. Investors’ will continue to track the broad-based market sentiment, ahead of the U.S. producer price index and Fed's Quarles speech. Immediate resistance is located at 114.55 (October 4 High), a break above targets 115.00. On the downside, support is seen at 113.52 (October 3 Low), a break below could take it lower 113.07 (November 5 Low).
GBP/USD: Sterling tumbled to a 4-day low as a resurgent dollar reduced some of the recent gains. However, the downside appears limited amid growing expectations that Britain is close to reaching a deal with the European Union. The major traded 0.3 percent down at 1.3019, having hit a high of 1.3174 on Wednesday; it’s highest since October 17. FxWirePro's Hourly Sterling Strength Index stood at -41.45 (Neutral) 1000 GMT. Immediate resistance is located at 1.3106 (November 6 High), a break above could take it near 1.3181 (October 15 High). On the downside, support is seen at 1.2936 (October 23 Low), a break below targets 1.2900 (October 23 Low). Against the euro, the pound was trading 0.2 percent down at 87.16 pence, having hit a high of 86.91 earlier, it’s highest since Apr. 27.
USD/CHF: The Swiss franc edged up after falling to 1-week low earlier in the day following a rally in the greenback against a basket of currencies. The major trades 0.05 percent down at 1.0056, having touched a low of 0.9952 on Wednesday; it’s lowest since October 24. FxWirePro's Hourly Swiss Franc Strength Index stood at -56.19 (Bearish) by 1000 GMT. On the higher side, near-term resistance is around 1.0100 and any break above will take the pair to next level till 1.0145. The near-term support is around 0.9937 (September 23 Low) and any close below that level will drag it till 0.9897 (October 17 Low).
Equities Recap
European shares tumbled, weighed down by a number of disappointing corporate earnings, while the greenback surged on the Fed's upbeat economic outlook and its intent to keep tightening monetary policy.
The pan-European STOXX 600 index plunged 0.6 percent at 364.68 points, while the FTSEurofirst 300 index fell 0.6 percent to 1,432.23 points.
Britain's FTSE 100 trades 0.6 percent down at 7,095.12 points, while mid-cap FTSE 250 eased 0.6 percent to 19,149.80 points.
Germany's DAX declined 0.4 percent at 11,476.68 points; France's CAC 40 trades 0.8 percent lower at 5,091.64 points.
Commodities Recap
Crude oil prices slumped by more than 2 percent to multi-month lows as global supply surged and investors worried about the impact on fuel demand from lower economic growth and trade disputes. International benchmark Brent crude was trading 2.2 percent down at $69.34 per barrel by 1042 GMT, having hit a low of $69.39 earlier, its lowest since August 10. U.S. West Texas Intermediate was trading 2.2 percent down at $59.43 a barrel, after falling as low as $59.41, its lowest since Feb. 14.
Gold prices declined to their lowest in a week and were poised for their biggest weekly slump since August, as the greenback surged after the U.S. Federal Reserve indicated they will continue to raise interest rates. Spot gold was 0.4 percent lower at $1,218.42 per ounce at 1046 GMT, having touched a low of $1,217.74 earlier, its lowest since Nov. 1 and was down about 1.0 percent for the week and on track to post its biggest weekly fall since August 17. U.S. gold futures fell 0.4 percent to $1,219.8 per ounce.
Treasuries Recap
The U.S. Treasuries jumped during late European session ahead of the country’s producer price index for the month of October, scheduled to be released today by 13:30GMT. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasuries fell nearly 2-1/2 basis points to 3.210 percent, the super-long 30-year bond yields also traded nearly 2-1/2 basis points lower at 3.403 percent and the yield on the short-term 2-year remained 1-1/2 basis points lower at 2.953 percent.
The United Kingdom’s gilts jumped during Friday’s afternoon session after investors have largely defied the rise in the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) for the third quarter of this year, released today, meeting market expectations as well. The yield on the benchmark 10-year gilts, plunged 3-1/2 basis points to 1.531 percent, the super-long 30-year bond yields slumped 2 basis points to 1.961 percent and the yield on the short-term 2-year traded nearly 3 basis points lower at 0.810 percent
The Australian long-term government bonds gained during Asian session after the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Board said there is no strong case for any near-term policy change in its November Statement on Monetary Policy (SoMP). The yield on Australia’s benchmark 10-year note, which moves inversely to its price, fell 1/2 basis point to 2.762 percent, the yield on the long-term 30-year bond dipped 1-1/2 basis points to 3.268 percent, but the yield on short-term 2-year up 1 basis point to 2.092 percent.
