Market Roundup
• Spanish CPI (MoM) (Oct): 0.6%, 0.6% forecast, -0.6% previous
• Spanish CPI (YoY) (Oct): 1.8%, 1.8% forecast, 1.5% previous
• Spanish HICP (MoM) (Oct): 0.4%, 0.4% forecast, -0.1% previous
• Spanish HICP (YoY) (Oct): 1.8%, 1.8% forecast, 1.7% previous.
• Spain Core CPI (YoY) (Oct): 2.5%, 2.5% forecast, 2.4% previous
• EU Employment Change (QoQ) (Q3): 0.2%, 0.2% forecast, 0.2% previous
• EU Employment Overall (Q3): 169,064.1K, 168,783.1K previous
• EU GDP (QoQ) (Q3): 0.4%, 0.4% forecast, 0.4% previous
• EU GDP (YoY) (Q3): 0.9%, 0.9% forecast, 0.9% previous
• EU Industrial Production (MoM) (Sep): -2.0%, -1.3% forecast, 1.5% previous
• EU Industrial Production (YoY) (Sep): -2.8%, -2.0% forecast, -0.1% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•13:30 US PPI ex. Food/Energy/Transport (MoM) (Oct): 0.1% previous
• 13:30 US PPI ex. Food/Energy/Transport (YoY) (Oct): 3.2% previous
• 13:30 US Continuing Jobless Claims: 1,880K forecast , 1,892K previous
• 13:30 US Core PPI (YoY) (Oct): 3.0% forecast, 2.8% previous
• 13:30 US Core PPI (MoM) (Oct): 0.3% forecast, 0.2% previous
• 13:30 US Initial Jobless Claims: 224K forecast 221K previous
• 13:30 US Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg: 227.25K previous
• 13:30 US PPI (MoM) (Oct): 0.2% forecast, 0.0% previous
• 13:30 US PPI (YoY) (Oct): 2.3% forecast, 1.8% previous
• 13:30 US New Motor Vehicle Sales (MoM) (Sep): 169.0K previous
•15:30 US Natural Gas Storage: 34B, 69B previous
•16:00 Crude Oil Inventories: 0.400M forecast , 2.149M previous
•16:00 US Crude Oil Imports: 1.676M previous
•16:00 US Cushing Crude Oil Inventories: 0.522M previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
•18:00 UK BoE Gov Bailey Speaks
•18:30 ECB's Schnabel Speaks
•19:00 ECB President Lagarde Speaks
•20:00 US Fed Chair Powell Speaks
•21:00 UK BoE Gov Bailey Speaks
•21:15 US FOMC Member Williams Speaks
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro fell against the dollar on Thursday, as US currency continued to benefit from Donald Trump's victory in the United States presidential election. Higher trade tariffs and tighter immigration under the upcoming Trump administration are expected to drive up inflation, perhaps stalling the Federal Reserve's rate-cutting cycle in the long run. These, together with predictions for increased deficit spending and faster short-term economic growth, are pushing Treasury yields higher, giving the dollar extra support. Later in the day, comments from ECB President Christine Lagarde and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will be on investors' radar. The euro slumped to its weakest since Nov. 2023 and was last $1.05554 down 0.13%. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0574(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0632(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0502`(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0463(Lower BB)
GBP/USD: The pound fell to its lowest against the dollar since early July, overshadowed by the US currency's persistent ascent following Donald Trump's election victory. Higher trade tariffs and tighter immigration under the upcoming Trump administration are expected to drive up inflation, perhaps stalling the Federal Reserve's rate-cutting cycle in the long run. These, together with predictions for increased deficit spending and faster short-term economic growth, are pushing Treasury yields higher, giving the dollar extra support. Sterling was last down 0.6% on the dollar at 1.2632, its lowest since July 2. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2709(Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2746(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2631 (23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2611(Lower BB).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar fell to a new three-month low on Thursday as the U.S. dollar continued its strong performance for fifth straight day fueled by higher yields and Trump's victory. The outcome of elections in the world's largest economy has boosted the dollar and U.S. bond yields, hurting other market currencies. According to data released on Thursday, employment in Australia increased by 15,900 in October, breaking a four-month run of disproportionate rises and narrowly missing market projections of a 25,000 increase. However, while hiring vigor was matched by a substantial increase in the workforce, unemployment remained at a historically low 4.1%, where it has been since April. Investors believed that the data was not poor enough to alter the Reserve Bank of Australia's stable policy outlook, which the central bank's head had already maintained. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6500(Psychological level), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6539(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6456(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6442(Lower BB).
USD/JPY: The dollar rose sharply against the yen on Thursday as investors bet that President-elect Donald Trump's policies would fuel inflation and keep interest rates higher for longer. Trump's plan for lower taxes and higher tariffs is expected to spur inflation and reduce the Fed's scope to ease interest rates, buoying the dollar.The dollar has pushed higher, ignoring the rising bets of a Fed cut in December which would typically be negative for the currency. Markets are now pricing in an 83% chance of a 25 bps rate cut from the Fed next month, up from about 59% a day ago, according to the CME FedWatch tool. The greenback climbed above 156 yen for the first time since July, and was last at 155.85 yen. Immediate resistance can be seen at 156.16 (23.6 %fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 156.76(Higher BB). On the downside, immediate support is seen at 155.36(Daily low) a break below could take the pair towards 154.50(38.2%fib).
Equities Recap
Europe's STOXX 600 index rose on Thursday, powered by energy and technology firms, boosted by largely positive earnings across sectors.
At (GMT 12:23),UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading up at 0.49 percent, Germany's Dax was up by 1.47 percent, France’s CAC was last up by 1.07 percent.
Commodities Recap
Oil prices were largely steady on Thursday, with traders holding fire after declines earlier this week on a stronger U.S. dollar and worries about rising supply amid slow demand growth.
Brent crude futures edged 17 cents higher to $72.45 a barrel at 1203 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures were up 14 cents to $68.57.
Gold prices fell by more than 1% on Thursday, reaching a two-month low, as investors awaited US economic data later in the day for more indications on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy course.
Spot gold was down 1.1% at $2,546.70 per ounce as of 1119 GMT, declining for a fifth straight session, after hitting its lowest since Sept. 12 earlier in the session.U.S. gold futures were down 1.4% at $2,551.60.
