Market Roundup
• UK Aug Halifax House Price Index (YoY) 4.3%, 4.2% forecast, 2.3% previous
• UK Aug Halifax House Price Index (MoM) 0.3%,0.2% forecast, 0.8% previous
• German Jul Exports (MoM) 1.7%,1.2% forecast,-3.4% previous
• German Jul Imports (MoM) 5.4%, 0.3% forecast, 0.3% previous
• German Jul Industrial Production (MoM) -2.4%,-0.4% forecast, 1.4% previous
• German Jul Trade 16.8B,21.0B forecast, 20.4B previous
• French Jul Industrial Production (MoM) -0.5%, -0.3% forecast, 0.8% previous
• French Jul Trade Balance -5.9B, -6.5B, -6.1B previous
• Switzerland Aug Foreign Reserves (USD) 693.8B,703.7B previous
• Switzerland SECO Consumer Climate -35,33 forecasts, -19 previous
• EU Employment Change (YoY) (Q2) 0.8% forecasts, 1.0% previous
• EU Employment Change (QoQ) (Q2) 0.2% , 0.2% ,0.2% forecasts, 0.3% previous
• EU GDP (QoQ) (Q2) 0.2% ,0.3% forecasts, 0.3% previous
• EU GDP (YoY) (Q2) 0.6% ,0.6% forecasts, 0.4%previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•12:30 US Average Hourly Earnings (YoY) (Aug): 3.7 forecast, 3.6% previous
•12:30 US Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) (Aug): 0.3% forecast,0.2% previous
•12:30 US Average Weekly Hours (Aug): 34.3 forecast, 34.2 previous
•12:30 US Government Payrolls (Aug): 17.0K previous
•12:30 US Manufacturing Payrolls (Aug): 0K forecast, 1K previous
•12:30 US Nonfarm Payrolls (Aug): 164K forecast, 114K previous
•12:30 US Participation Rate (Aug): 62.7% previous
•12:30 US Private Nonfarm Payrolls (Aug): 139K forecast, 97K previous
•12:30 US U6 Unemployment Rate (Aug): 7.8% previous
•12:30 US Unemployment Rate (Aug): 4.2% forecast,4.3% previous
•12:30 Canada Avg Hourly Wages (Permanent Employee) (Aug): 5.2% previous
•12:30 Canada Employment Change (Aug): 23.7K, -2.8K previous
•12:30 Canada Full Employment Change (Aug) 61.6K previous
•12:30 Canada Part-Time Employment Change (Aug): -64.4K previous
•12:30 Canada Participation Rate (Aug): 65.0% previous
•12:30 Canada Unemployment Rate (Aug): 6.5%forecast,6.4% previous
•14:00 US Total Vehicle Sales (Aug): 15.40M,15.80M previous
•14:00 Canada Ivey PMI n.s.a (Aug) 55.3 previous
•14:00 Canada Ivey PMI (Aug): 55.3 forecast, 57.6 previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
•12:45 US FOMC Member Williams Speaks
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro was little changed against the dollar on Friday as markets braced for an all-important U.S. jobs reading later in the day which could offer clues on the size of potential rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this month.Non-farm payrolls data is slated to be released at 1230 GMT. Analysts are looking for new jobs to rise by 160,000 and for the unemployment rate to dip to 4.2%. Global investors have been cautious this week due to signs of slowing U.S. economic growth, with uncertainty about the extent of potential policy easing at the Fed’s September 17-18 meeting. Market expectations still lean towards a 25-basis-point rate cut at the Federal Open Market Committee's upcoming meeting, with a roughly 40% chance of a 50-basis-point cut, according to CME Group’s FedWatch Tool. The euro held its ground at $1.1112, just below Thursday's one-week high of $1.11195. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1118(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1185(Aug 20th high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1039(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0958 (61.8%fib).
GBP/USD: Sterling eased slightly on Friday ahead of the release of the key U.S. non-farm payrolls. The U.S. non-farm payrolls report, later in the day, will set expectations around the quantum and pace of U.S. rate cuts ahead of this month's Fed policy decision.A report on Thursday showed a decline in new jobless benefit claims, easing concerns of a rapidly deteriorating labor market, following earlier data that revealed private sector job growth had hit a 3.5-year low in August. The mixed data left traders uncertain ahead of Friday's payrolls report, with economists predicting an increase of 165,000 jobs in August, up from 114,000 in July. Sterling held steady at $1.3175, close to its overnight high of $1.31855, the strongest level since August 30.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3200(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3265(Aug 27th high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3092(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3052(61.8%fib).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar eased against dollar on Friday as investors awaited U.S. jobs data, which is expected to provide insights into the pace of rate cuts by Fed. The U.S. non-farm payrolls report is crucial, especially after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell indicated that further weakening in the labor market could prompt a September rate cut. Analysts expect an increase of 165,000 new jobs and a decrease in the unemployment rate to 4.2%.Bets for a 50-basis-point (bp) cut by the U.S. Federal Reserve have risen to 41% from 34% a week ago, but traders still see a 59% chance that the reduction will just be 25 bps, according to CME Group's FedWatch tool.The Aussie was flat at $0.6739, having eased 0.4% for the week. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6753(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6816(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6688(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6634(61.8%fib).
USD/CHF: the dollar declined against the Swiss franc on Friday as greenback nursed losses ahead of important U.S. payrolls data, which could pave the way for significant interest rate cuts. Investors were eagerly awaiting the U.S. non-farm payrolls report, as it is expected to influence the Federal Reserve's decision on interest rate adjustments at its meeting on September 17-18. Traders currently anticipate a quarter-point reduction is more likely, but rate futures contracts indicate there's about a 49% chance of a 50-basis-point cut. This follows Thursday's report showing U.S. job openings fell to a 3.5-year low in July.Top of FormBottom of FormImmediate resistance can be seen at 0.8456(28th Aug high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.8518(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.8407 (23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.8370(Lower BB).
USD/JPY: The dollar fell to a one-month low against the yen, as a range of mixed U.S. job market indicators prompted caution ahead of the key monthly payrolls report due later in the day.Data released on Thursday showed that U.S. private employers added the fewest number of workers in 3.5 years in August, suggesting a potential sharp slowdown in the labor market. However, the number of Americans filing new jobless claims declined last week. The August non-farm payroll report is anticipated to provide clarity on the pace of potential Federal Reserve interest rate cuts at its September meeting, with economists forecasting an increase of 160,000 jobs, up from 114,000 in July. The dollar fell 0.3% to 143.35 against the Japanese yen, reaching a one-month low. Strong resistance can be seen at 144.22 (Sep 5th high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 144.77 (38.2%fib). On the downside, immediate support is seen at 142.79 (23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 141.88 (Lower BB).
Equities Recap
European shares fell for the fifth consecutive session on Friday, as investors remained cautious ahead of the critical U.S. jobs data. This report, being the last labor market update before the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decision on September 18, was particularly anticipated.
At (GMT 09:52),UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading down at 0.48 percent, Germany's Dax was down by 0.71 percent, France’s CAC was last down by 0.36 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices hovered near a one-week high as investors focused on U.S. jobs data that could influence the size of the Federal Reserve's expected rate cut later this month.
Spot gold rose 0.1% at $2,518.49 per ounce by 0742 GMT, after hitting a one-week high of $2,523.29 in the previous session. Bullion gained 0.6% for the week.U.S. gold futures firmed 0.2% to $2,548.50.
Oil is facing the worst week since October 2023 as demand worries weigh against a big withdrawal from U.S. inventories and a delay to output increases by OPEC+ producers.
Brent futures were down 1 cent to settle at $72.69 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude fell 5 cents, or 0.1%, to settle at $69.15.
That was the lowest close for Brent since June 2023 for a second day in a row and the lowest close for WTI since December 2023 for a third day in a row.
