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Daily outlook for EUR/USD: Commerzbank

Quotes from Commerzbank Corporates & Markets:

-EUR-USD: Nothing seems to be able to affect EUR-USD at present. Fed chair Janet Yellen's comments in front a Committee of the US Senate hardly affected the FX market at all. EUR-USD is today trading just above 1.1340 only just above yesterday's levels. This may be due to the fact that her comments seemed to contain something to please everyone. Hawks are likely to have felt confirmed as falling inflation expectations are due to external factors according to the Fed.

-At the same time she agreed with the doves by referring to still disappointing wage inflation, which illustrated that the recovery of the labour market was not satisfactory yet. So in total no reason for the USD to rally. In any case the market is more sceptical than the Fed's FOMC and only expects one rate hike until year-end. This is unlikely to change if the Fed bids goodbye to its forward guidance of "patience" as early as March, as Yellen made it clear yesterday that this did not constitute a signal for rate hikes in June.

-It is clear that the positive data so far has failed to convince the market to give up its cautious stand. We will have to see a lot more to justify further USD strength. There is no important data due for publication today. The technical support at 1.1270 is unlikely to be breached for the time being. 

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