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Daily outlook for EM FX: Societe Generale

Quotes from Societe Generale Cross Asset Research:

-In emerging markets, higher oil prices and tax payments by Russian corporates (exporters swapping USD revenues back in ruble) helped the RUB yesterday to further erase some of this week's earlier ratings downgrade induced losses.

-Doubts remain however whether the RUB can find a more stable footing until rates fall back further. RUB 1y Xccy rose 20bp yesterday trading an intra-day high of 15.25%. The Turkish Lira on the other reversed the gains from Tuesday with USD/TRY backing up through 2.4900, failing to take advantage of lower US yields thanks to President Erdogan's advisor Bulut questioning CBRT's "measured" rate cut.

-EUR/TRY is back flirting with the 200dma at 2.8315. A close above the 200dma has not occurred since last December and could be a trigger for further buying. TRY 1y Xccy got paid all the way up to 8.50% from an 8.15% low yesterday, marking an intra-day spike of 35bp. Investor confidence in Turkish assets is likely to stay rocky ahead of the June general election.

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