Chinese slow down creates ripples across global market

Latest data point that GDP growth in China slowed to 7% in the first quarter, down from 7.4% in the previous. Other macro-economic indicators such as Industrial production, producer prices, urban investments all pointing at slower growth ahead.

Effects are multidimensional.

Commodity prices -

• Lower commodity prices, due to slower consumption in China are creating headache for monetary policy makers across world, as commodities are feeding to lower inflation, in some cases deflation making it hard for policymakers to adjust policies.
  
  
• Lower commodity prices, like Iron ore, Copper, Coal are creating issues in producing countries' budget as lawmakers struggle to balance lower revenues from Australia to Peru to Chile.

Lower luxury sales -

• In March retail sales hit 9 year low at 10.2% y/y, creating headaches for Luxury item companies such as Prada, which first time reported drop in net profit since listing in 2011.

• Germany and Switzerland are in trouble too, as China's appetite for Luxury cars and watches continue to slow down over weaker growth, austerity and corruption crack down.

Real Estate -

• Real Estate in China continue to pose weakness as latest data points that prices dropped 49 out of 70 cities surveyed with average drop of -6.1% y/y.
  
  
• Moreover issue is not contained within domestic boundaries, Chinese property investors are now chasing real estates in US, UK, Australia, Canada moving prices beyond the reach of domestic consumers. Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) in its latest policy meet issues caution against higher real estate prices.

China's Forex reserve is falling, now at $3.7 trillion due to capital flight out of country and might exacerbate further should the GDP miss target of 7% stipulated by lawmakers.