China’s growth likely set to slow further

There should be further narrowing of the premium of GDP growth relative to the developed countries in other emerging markets. This might be mainly because of China, which amounts to 38% of EM GDP, where there is a rapid rise in the corporate debt since financial crisis in 2008, to 160% of GDP.

Debt is rising rapidly and is much higher than most of the other developed or emerging countries. IMF calculations indicate that debt levels particularly rose in state-owned companies, specifically in construction and real estate sector, mining and utilities, where there is high overcapacity and falling sales price.

"The companies operating in these sectors are under growing pressure, which is largely why we expect comparatively low growth for China in 2016 even based on the officially reported GDP figures (6.3%; consensus: 6.5%)" says Commerzbank in a research note. 

Economic crash is not likely as the government is likely to prevail upon the state-owned banks to keep the highly indebted companies afloat with the loans.

The commodity importing countries excluding China, has benefited from declining commodity prices in latest years and has more or less maintained its growth advantage over developed nations.

"If commodity prices do not fall further in 2016, as we expect, commodity-importing emerging markets will lose this tailwind. They are also likely to suffer from the fact that higher interest rates in the US mean that a decade of cheap money is coming to an end", added Commerzbank.