China’s exports are likely to have grown strongly by 6.1% in March in CNY terms, as compared with -13.1% y/y in January and February of 2016, in spite of weak external demand, according to Societe Generale. The growth is mostly because of major positive base effect, whereas sequential growth is likely to post weaker-than-usual recovery after the Lunar New Year holidays, added Societe Generale.

“On average, exports are likely to have decelerated further in Q1 16 from -1.7% yoy in Q4 15”, noted Societe Generale.

Meanwhile, with the support of stronger commodity prices, China’s imports are likely to have rebounded modestly last month, said Societe Generale. Import growth from Hong Kong is expected to be solid because of the fake invoice problem; however, the effect on headline figure is not likely to be major due to the comparatively small share of total imports from Hong Kong.