China’s Q1 GDP growth may have slowed

China is due to release Q1 GDP and key growth indices for March on 15 April. GDP growth expected to have slid to 6.9% y/y in Q1 from 7.3% in Q4-2014. 

The housing investment slump remained a severe headwind, while slower profit growth hindered corporate investment. Meanwhile, lacklustre domestic demand and the weak external demand recovery continued to weigh on production and restocking. 

Industrial production growth is expected to have inched up to 6.9% y/y in March from 6.8% prior. This reflects the modest improvement in production, while new orders remain weak, as indicated by the official manufacturing PMI. 

Infrastructure investment likely remained firm but insufficient to offset the slowdown in manufacturing and housing investment. 

"We therefore forecast fixed asset investment (FAI) growth of 13.8% in Q1. Given slowing income growth and weak consumer sentiment, we expect retail sales growth to have moderated further to 10.6% y/y in March from 10.7% in the first two months of the year", Said Standard Chartered in a report on Tuesday