China slowdown – Polyethylene edition

Various macroeconomic indicators like industrial production, GDP, producer prices etc. have clearly warned against slowdown in growth in China. However when looked at micro level data or trade statistics, story is the same.

• Growth of 6-7% is still expected out of Chinese economy and throwing out the historic reference of double digit growth make it still look very positive and enviable. This level of growth looks more manageable for world's second largest economy. However real pain will be on those heavily depending on imports to China and still believes in a rebound.

This chart on Polyethylene import statistics by ICIS, an intelligence provider on chemical and fertilizers across world, clear up that china is not only slowing down but domestic companies are replacing the imports.

• China's demand for PE has fallen for the first two months of 2015 by 4% from a year ago.
• Domestic production rose to 9% YoY reducing imports by 20% YoY.
• Demand from Europe is down by 31%, in spite of favorable exchange rate. North American region saw exports down by 61%.

Importers to China and nations like Australia will not be doing well, should the slowdown continue further.