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China April growth moderates on slow investment, manufacturing activities

The Chinese economy witnessed slight moderation in the April growth process, with fixed asset investment slowing and manufacturing activities taking a backseat, though industry performances remained mixed.

Fixed asset investment slipped to 10.5 pct for the four months ending Apr 30, 2016 compared to 10.7 pct during the first quarter of this year.  However, infrastructure investment continued to rise strongly by 19 pct y/y and represented 18 pct of total FAI, contributing 30 pct of the total growth.

In contrast, real estate investment rose 7.2 pct in the first four months of 2016, higher than Q1 2016’s 6.2 pct, suggesting that activities in April were even higher than the period average. Property sales rose 36.5 pct y/y in floor space and 55.9 pct in sales value, higher than Q1’s 33.1 pct and 54.1 pct, respectively.

Industrial production growth declined to 6.0% y/y in April, down 0.8 ppt. Sequentially, the IP expanded 0.47 pct m/m, compared with the exceptionally strong 0.63 pct in March. The growth rates of mining, general equipment, and ferrous metal declined by about 3ppt in April, while those of food, non-ferrous metals, and automobiles rose faster, ANZ Research said in a report.

Meanwhile, headline y/y growth edged down 0.2ppt to 10.1 pct but maintained a m/m rate of 0.8 pct, equivalent to the 12-month moving average.

"We believe the PBoC will be less aggressive in considering monetary policy easing and will adopt a targeted approach. We stick to our forecast of just one reserve requirement ratio cut in 2016," ANZ said in a research note.

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