Canadian dollar vulnerable after CPI release as crude might turn lower

Canadian dollar, which has been losing ground against dollar since the pair (USD/CAD)failed to break below 1.19 support area, now stands close to losing further grounds as dollar recovers and crude seem to be in the process of curving a top.

• Friday's CPI release disappointed to the downside, making loonie vulnerable to further stimulus from Bank of Canada (BOC). Though BOC is most likely to wait further data confirmation before taking any action. Core consumer prices rose 2.3% y/y in April and headline consumer prices rose 0.8% y/y. Headline CPI dropped by -0.1% in April on monthly basis.

Expect loonie to rise from here, should either of the two factors (Stronger dollar, weaker crude price) takes place.

Risk reward also remains attractive for buy position in the pair. One might target new all-time high around 1.28 with 1.19 as stop loss or buy at current price (1.228) with stop around 1.214 and target of 1.25 area.

Caution is this is area of resistance and falling down trend line, however a break out is most likely.