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Bullish ESM5, but seasonals & the VXV/VIX are a worry

BofA Merrill Lynch notes ....

  • While we remain bullish ESM5, targeting 2109/2136 resistance, and have no interest in fighting the tape, we are concerned about near term seasonality and the VXV/VIX ratio. 

  • However, to be clear, we are still bullish. At this stage seasonality and the VXV/VIX ratio are only concerns. 

  • Indeed, trouble doesn't start until we see a break of 2074.00, while a break of 2052.25 is needed to invalidate the small head-and-shoulders base that is currently driving the market higher. Bears don't gain control until we break 2029.

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