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Briferendum series: Brexit is a threat for EU too

Brexit debate so far has been concentrated too much over UK as if an exit from European Union would only open up the devil for Britain and rest of the Europe will thrive. If anyone has any notion of such, they can throw them in garbage bin. An exit by Britain would be equally, if not more devastating for Europe.

This is probably because of visibility. Cost to UK, upon exit is more visible than that of EU.

While large chunk of the Britain's uncertainty cost lies with legal challenges, the uncertainty EU faces is an existential one.

UK will have to draft new trade rules for as many as sixty countries, may be more creating uncertainties surrounding dealings and investments but in the medium term money might seek out for UK, even within European Union. We have said before Britain will have to agree fast to a new free trade agreement (FTA) with rest of EU-27 but it won't be just in UK's interest to draft such agreements.

It is important to note, while UK might thrive in the longer run with better self-governance, an exit would make a permanent hole in EU, where other might follow suit. Moreover, if it occurs, it would happen at a time, when very fabric of European unity is in doldrums over migrant crisis.

If UK does better in the longer run, it would pose additional threat as if it is better outside EU, free from rules.It would significantly reduce the bargaining powers of stronger EU members, such as Germany, France and the influence they have over weaker members.

While European Union has thrived as economic project, it was originally sought as political project and with Britain gone, that project dream would be shattered and EU would also lose its power over global politics, along with UK.

Upon exit, Britain will have to suffer in the short to medium term, while EU will suffer for longer than imaginable.

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