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Briferendum Series: UK suffer ratings cut post-referendum

Moody’s investor service was the first one to yank the country from its AAA rated list of countries back in 2013 but now other two have joined in too, since the referendum result. Fitch has cut its credit rating for the UK, from AA+ to AA on Monday, an action that was followed by the last major credit rating agency Standard & Poor. The group reduced the rating by two notches from AAA to AA. The move, however, was widely expected, since the rating agencies have warned to do this if UK votes to leave the Union.

Pound has declined more than 11 percent in Friday and Monday, making it the biggest two-day decline since the Bretton Woods of 1971. S&P has warned that the UK may fall into a technical recession in the first half of 2017 and for this year it has reduced growth expectations to 1.1 percent from 2.1 percent it forecasted in April. It has also warned that there could be a marked deterioration in the UK’s financial services industry, which is a major source of government revenue and the employment.

As of now, there are two much uncertainties and a lot will dependent on what kind of relations the UK will have to the countries of the Union. The European Union accounts for almost 44 percent of all of its exports. Moreover, the foreign banks, which has set up their operation base in the United Kingdom to access the single market accounts of half of UK’s financial assets and they may choose to leave if the relation isn’t satisfactory.

We expect these uncertainties likely to continue for months if not years and the volatility and news shocks likely to persist surrounding the pound sterling. The sterling is currently trading at 1.335 against the dollar.

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