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Briferendum Series: Sterling IV skyrockets above 28 percent

One-month implied volatility, popularly known as the cost of protecting against volatility in Sterling/Dollar exchange rate soared above 28 percent in recent trade as fear mounts over UK’s exit from the European Union.

Most of the recent polls published show, exit camp has taken a lead over the in camp. On Friday, a poll released by an exclusive poll by “The Independent” showed that the exit camp is leading by 10 percentage points. Over the weekend, another poll by Opinium showed remarkable 19 percentage points lead by the exit camp, which by far is the highest lead recorded by any cam so far.

Betting odds at Betfair has also been shifting sharply towards an exit by the UK, however, the in camp is still at 68.5%.

With such big shifts, market participants are naturally preparing for the worst and there is a scarcity of insurance in the primary market as most banks are not ready to take up the risks for such unprecedented events.

One month IV is now, just shy of its all-time high above 30%, recorded back in 2009, during Great recession.

The pound has been declining sharply since Friday and currently trading at 1.418 against Dollar.  

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