UK Treasury, which has been accused of playing by the hands of George Osborne, Chancellor of exchequer, has published a detailed report on risks and cost associated with British exit from the Union. If you got time to venture through 83 pages long report, here is the link –

https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/524967/hm_treasury_analysis_the_immediate_economic_impact_of_leaving_the_eu_web.pdf

If, not you can at least go through the two shock scenarios presented by the treasury in the report. These scenario’s explain how different will the UK economic conditions be if Britons chose to exit the union.

• Under the base shock scenario, which is more aligned to the predictions of International Monetary Fund, OECD and Bank of England (BOE), Treasury predicts, GDP to shrink 3.6% due to yearlong recession. Inflation will rise 2.3%, Unemployment rate will rise 1.6% leading to job losses of 520,000, average real wages to decline by 2.8%, House price to decline by 10% and Public sector net borrowing to rise by £24 billion. In this scenario, Sterling is expected to decline by 12%.

• Under severe shock scenario, Treasury expects GDP to shrink by 6%, inflation to rise 2.7%, unemployment to rise 2.4% leading to job losses of 820,000, average real wages to decline 4%, House prices to decline 18% and Public sector borrowings to rise £39 billion. Under this scenario, Pound is expected to decline by 15%.

Though many aspects of the predictions falling in line with international bodies such as IMF, it seems to be a bit biased over job losses, biggest job loss burden are likely to be shared by EU workers than Britons.

Pound is currently trading at 1.461 against Dollar.