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Brickell Analytics LLC’s CEO Isaac Gilinski Warns Investors to Prepare for a 4 Year Bear Market
Since 2016, investors have been paying very close attention to the Trump rally, specifically the 4-year uptick in the S&P 500 or SPX — one that Isaac Gilinski, the CEO of Brickell Analytics LLC, believes is coming to an end on the heels of the White House’s new occupant, Joe Biden.
The 2016 Market Bottom and Trump Rally
Here are the numbers: on February 12, 2016, the SPX bottomed at 1810. And then on November 4, 2016 — just four days before the 2016 U.S. Presidential Election — the Trump rally started. Between the 1810 February 12, 2016 low and the 3860 January 20, 2021 record high (the date of this writing), the SPX surged 113%.
“Politically speaking, the Trump rally comes to an end the day that the Presidency passes to Joe Biden, which is January 20, 2021,” commented Isaac Gilinski, whose firm Brickell Analytics LLC provides customized macro-based research on global markets. “However, the actual end of the Trump rally should coincide with a market top in the SPX in technical terms — give or take a few months — when the index crosses above 4000 and we run out of bullish individual stocks ideas. Microsoft, Facebook and Amazon still need to exceed their 2020 record highs before the bull market can end.”
What Goes Up, Must Come Down
As Trump leaves office, investors should expect the Trump movement to suffer a retracement or setback that will coincide with a big decline in equities, as the old political order — one that is comprised of politicians rather than business professionals — reasserts its power.
“Politics since Bush Sr. assumed office on January 20, 1989 can be defined as the old political order,” commented Isaac Gilinski, whose firm Brickell Analytics LLC was established in 2011. “Between January 1989 and January 2025 or for 32 out of 36 years, the old political order has and will have governed. This old political order is near its end. It must crumble under its own weight, as it is an outdated system. The four-year Trump presidency was an exception that emerged as an offsetting force within this old system.”
Light at the End of the Tunnel
If Isaac Gilinski’s prediction is accurate, then the good news for investors is that the old political order will not reign for a thousand years. In fact, the real number should be four more years.
“The demise of the old political system should coincide with a major market decline during the Biden Presidency between 2021 and 2024,” commented Isaac Gilinski, whose firm Brickell Analytics forecasts the direction of markets using the handwriting technique and Elliott waves to generate future price targets on charts. “Near the end of the Biden Presidency, the bear market should end coinciding with the start of the rejuvenated and reinvented Trump movement — regardless of whether Trump is elected or not. This Trump movement may even be called the Tea Party Movement 2.0. This should be a bullish force that offsets the large market decline, and brings about a bigger and better political system, as well a more efficient and fairer free market economy. The Trump movement will have learned from its prior mistakes after the 2020 election loss and will reemerge more polished and reformed.”
Rock Bottom Shouldn’t Exceed 55%
If this equity-politics analysis is correct, then the SPX should not fall further than the 1810 February 12, 2016 low. If it goes below that level, it means something far worse is transpiring that could bring about economic calamity — which is not something that Isaac Gilinski is forecasting at this juncture.
“Our objective is to look for a happy ending within this sad story, which is an inevitable and looming bear market,” commented Isaac Gilinski. “We are still optimists within the negative technical framework we are foreseeing. A 55 percent SPX-collapse between 4000 and 1800 is a big enough bear market. There is no point in forecasting anything bigger; at least not for now.”
This article does not necessarily reflect the opinions of the editors or management of EconoTimes