China's return to the markets after the festivals at the end of last week also brought the volatility back to trading. Brent climbed by nearly 4% yesterday and thus recouped almost all of the losses it had made the day before. At its peak, Brent was trading at $50 per barrel again in the morning.
The virtually unchanged WTI price can be explained by Monday's public holiday in the US, which meant that its price fell initially and then pared those losses again. Yesterday's price performance is certainly remarkable, as the price increased despite weak Chinese foreign trade data.
Two weeks ago, such data would have sparked a price slide on the commodity markets. Evidently the bad news from China is now sufficiently priced in. This could mean that the price slump in August was due to a final sell-off, and that oil prices bottomed out for the time being at the end of August. Any lasting price recovery would require signs that the oversupply is being reduced, however. This could be indicated this evening if the US Energy Information Administration revises its forecast for US crude oil production up to the end of 2016 significantly downwards, notes Commerzbank.
