Brent Oil Tops $100 as Middle East Conflict Threatens Supply

Brent crude oil prices climbed above $100 a barrel on Wednesday for the first time since July 24 as escalating Middle East conflict intensified fears of further disruptions to global oil supplies.

Benchmark Brent crude futures rose as high as $100.19 a barrel before trading up $2.01, or 2.05%, at $99.93 by 0802 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude gained $1.49, or 1.60%, to $94.52 a barrel.

Brent oil has advanced roughly 25% since early August as expectations for a lasting resolution to the six-month U.S.-Iran conflict have weakened. Since fighting began on February 28, Brent has reached as high as $126.41, a peak recorded on April 30.

Oil supply concerns intensified this week after Iran-backed Houthis attacked Saudi energy facilities, setting installations ablaze and raising the risk of a broader regional confrontation. The strikes also threaten crude shipments through the Red Sea, an important alternative to the Strait of Hormuz, where oil traffic has already been sharply restricted.

Hamad Hussain, senior climate and commodities economist at Capital Economics, said traders appear to be pricing in a longer Middle East conflict and greater risks to regional oil flows. Ship-to-ship transfers in the Gulf of Oman are also becoming increasingly important to global supply.

Before fighting resumed on August 30, around 8 million to 9 million barrels per day were moving through Hormuz, according to Rystad Energy Chief Economist Claudio Galimberti. More recently, volumes have dropped below 2 million bpd.

The mounting supply threat has prompted Goldman Sachs, Bank of America and HSBC to raise their crude oil price forecasts.

Jeffrey Currie, co-chairman at Abaxx Markets, said higher energy prices increasingly reflect a structural “security premium” rather than a temporary shock.

Although producers including the United States, Canada and Guyana have increased output, the International Energy Agency expects global oil supply to decline by 4.3 million bpd this year, equivalent to roughly 4%, adding further pressure to an already tight market.