Bitcoin's Rare Red Year: On Track for Fourth Annual Loss After Crashtober Shock

Trading below its 2025 opening price of about $94,000, Bitcoin is poised for just its fourth negative calendar year return in history—following down years in 2014, 2018, and 2022. Bitcoin's price finishing the year below its start denotes a yearly loss among its otherwise robust long-term uptrend, hence marking a "red year". BTC stays in the high $80,000s as of late December 2025, somewhat negative year-to-date, hence 2025 fits this rare result.

The turning point came in "Crashtober," when Bitcoin dropped over 14% in hours on October 10–11 after President Trump unexpectedly declared 100% taxes on Chinese imports. This set off a worldwide risk-off movement, which cascaded over leveraged crypto positions and produced an all-time record $19 billion in liquidations—affecting some 1.6 million traders.

The market still bears the weight of the October crash, which revealed weak liquidity as market makers withdrew, therefore increasing volatility and hurting sentiment. Though strong on-chain indicators have held Bitcoin below its highs, money has left crypto rather than turning inside it. Analysts disagree: Some believe the structural break in market microstructure could postpone recovery, while others view the significant deleveraging as good and set the stage for a more sustainable uptrend if spot demand and macroeconomic conditions become better.