Australia’s capex falls slightly in Q3, outlook for 2018-19 revised higher

Australia’s Capex fell slightly in Q3, although this was somewhat tempered by the upgrade to the Q2 result, from -2.5 percent q/q to -0.9 percent q/q. Further, outside of the weakness in construction, the details of the report were positive.

In even better news, the outlook for 2018-19 was revised materially higher. This is important because this release is where firms’ forecasts traditionally become much more accurate.

Non-mining firms now expect their investment to increase 7 percent over the current financial year, which is a much better outcome than the 2 percent growth forecast three months ago.

Even the mining sector is slowly turning around. Gas and oil investment fell a further 8 percent in Q3, likely driven by the Ichthys project fast approaching completion. But iron ore investment rose again, with spending in Q3 more than 50 percent above the Q2 2017 trough.

"Further, mining firms expect investment to fall by just 1 percent in 2018-19, which would be the best result since 2012-13," ANZ Research commented in its latest report.