Over long term, Australian growth is expected to remain subpar and AUD is likely to drift lower. Governor Stevens will retire in September 2016 while a federal election must be held by Jan 2017.
Australia's current account deficit should also be observed. Historically it has been easily financed due to Australia's high interest rates, it is back to 4.7% of GDP, The foreign direct investment is slowing down leaving Australia more reliant on portfolio flows.
The reserve managers are no longer AUD buyers as they were once. Boom in non resource exports has limited evidence, and for business environment, which would inspire more confidence that growth is actually rebalancing in response to lower AUD and rates.
"Service exports have picked up but they still account for just 15% of total exports. Goods exports are still dominated by resources. In real terms, export volumes may rise - in fact our energy team project AU will be the world's number one exporter of LNG by 2018", says RBC Capital Markets in a research note.


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