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As stated in our recent post lackluster Aussie capex disappointed the streets.
- Overall, the CAPEX survey during Q1 was extremely fragile. Q1 capex fell 4.4% versus consensus numbers -2.2%. 2014-15 was revised marginally higher once adjusted by the 5yr realization ratio, but 2015-16 was very weak.
- The second estimate of AUD104bn translates to a drop to -23.5% previous survey was already weaker at -16% next FY.
- Non mining capex for 2015-16 remained as sluggish as the last survey -9.6%, showing virtually no signs of improvements.
Medium to long term downtrend is most likely on this pair even though any short term minor recoveries in between.
On weekly chart the formation of descending triangular range by this pair is shown in the figure.
Currently the pair at Apex point around 1.0595 levels, this has been generally counted as a Bearish Pattern.
However, for further confirmation, the volumes should be heavier on the downside and lighter during the bounces.
In addition to that, oscillators such as RSI (14) early signs of downward convergence to the dips occurred recently.
Stochastic signals a significant %D line crossover as it happened in 3rd month exactly at the similar level, observe what happened thereafter.
%D is the 3 period moving average of the %K line. 3 period moving averages of %D gives slow stochastic.
