Market Roundup
•Australia Reserve Assets Total (Oct) 110.6B, 108.0B previous
•China PBoC Loan Prime Rate (Nov) 3.50%, 3.50%forecast, 3.50% previous
•China PBoC Loan Prime Rate 3.00% 3.00% forecast, 3.00% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
• 09:40 Spanish 10-Year Obligacion Auction 3.111% previous
• 09:40 Spanish 3-Year Bonos Auction 2.212% previous
•09:40 Spanish 5-Year Bonos Auction 2.443% previous
•10:00 Belgium Consumer Confidence (Nov) 0 previous
•10:00 EU Construction Output (MoM) (Sep) -0.10% previous
•11:00 UK CBI Industrial Trends Orders (Nov) -33 forecast, -38 previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
•No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD : The euro edged lower on Thursday as dollar gained reduced expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in December. Traders are awaiting the release of September's delayed jobs report, due for release later in the global day, to provide clues on the Federal Reserve's next move.Minutes from the Fed's October meeting released on Wednesday showed it cut interest rates even as policymakers cautioned that doing so could risk entrenched inflation and a loss of public trust in the U.S. central bank.Fed funds futures are pricing an implied 33% probability of a 25-basis-point cut at the next meeting on December 10, down from a 50% chance a day earlier, according to the CME Group's FedWatch tool. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1630(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.16478(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1583(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1530(38.2%fib).
GBP/USD: Sterling edged higher against the dollar on Thursday as investors were cautious ahead of the release of the delayed US September Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report. U.S. non-farm payrolls report scheduled for later in the day after being delayed due to the recent U.S. government shutdown. The data is expected to provide further cues on the Fed's policy trajectory.Economists polled expect the report will show that employers added 50,000 jobs during the month. Meanwhile,data on Wednesday showed British consumer price inflation fell to 3.6% in October, the first drop since May, with traders increasing bets the Bank of England will cut interest rates in December.The data cemented expectations that the BoE could cut interest rates in December, while elsewhere investors struggled for direction and U.S. agencies cleared a backlog of data after a prolonged government shutdown. Markets now see an 86% chance of a 25-basis point BoE rate cut in December, up from an 80% chance priced on Tuesday, Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3198(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3243(SMA 20).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3000(Psychological level), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2977(Lower BB).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar dipped on Thursday as a sharp pullback in Federal Reserve interest rate cut bets boosted the greenback. Minutes from the Federal Reserve's latest policy meeting showed on Wednesday that many policymakers were opposed to a cut in December. Fed fund futures tumbled to imply just a 30% probability of a quarter-point reduction next month, down from 50% a day earlier.Much is now riding on the long-delayed release of the U.S. jobs data for September later in the day, which could still revive the chances for a Fed cut next month if it surprises on the downside. The median forecast is for a gain of 50,000 jobs, while the unemployment rate is seen holding steady at 4.3%. The Aussie was down $0.6477, having dropped 0.5% overnight to as low as $0.6451, the weakest level in a month Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6514(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6523 (Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6473(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6447(Lower BB)
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar extended gains against the yen on Thursday as the Japanese currency continuing to slide on expectations that authorities are unlikely to step in immediately to curb its weakness. Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said foreign-exchange issues were not discussed in her meeting with Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda. The yen has fallen around 6% since Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi became party leader, despite rising Japanese yields, as investors worry about the heavy borrowing required to fund her stimulus plans. Traders now expect potential intervention from Japanese authorities near the ¥160 level or if the currency experiences further abrupt moves. Immediate resistance can be seen at 157.56(23.6%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 158.00 (Psychological level) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 156.85 (Daily low) a break below could take the pair towards 155.34 (38.2%fib)
Equities Recap
Asian markets staged a relief rally on Thursday, with stocks climbing as investors welcomed Nvidia’s blockbuster earnings, while the dollar edged higher as traders positioned for the release of delayed U.S. jobs data.
Hang Seng was down 0.12% ,South Korea’s KOSPI traded up 1.92% ,Japan’s Nikkei 225 was up 2.68%
Commodities Recap
Gold prices slipped on Thursday, weighed down by a stronger dollar and reduced expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in December, with investors eyeing a delayed U.S. jobs report.
Spot gold was down 0.4% at $4,063.81 per ounce, as of 0653 GMT. U.S. gold futures for December delivery fell 0.5% to $4,063.60 per ounce.
Oil prices inched higher on Thursday, recovering from the previous session’s losses after a larger-than-expected draw in U.S. crude inventories offset speculation that Washington’s push to end the Russia-Ukraine war could add barrels to an already well-supplied market.
Brent crude futures were up 20 cents, or 0.31%, to $63.72 a barrel at 0714 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures were 22 cents, or 0.37%, higher at $59.66.
