Market Roundup
•Australia MI Inflation Expectations 4.0%, 4.4% previous
•Australia Building Approvals (MoM) (Aug) -6.1%, -6.1% forecast, 11.0% previous
•Australia Private House Approvals (Aug) 0.5%, 0.5% forecast, 0.9% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•08:00 Italian Industrial Production (MoM) (Aug) 0.3% forecast, -0.9% previous
•08:00 Italian Industrial Production (YoY) (Aug) -3.3% previous
•10:00 Irish CPI (YoY) (Sep) 1.7% previous
•10:00 Irish CPI (MoM) (Sep) 0.1% previous
•10:00 Irish HICP (MoM) (Sep) -0.8% forecast, 0.1% previous
•10:00 Greek CPI (YoY) (Sep) 3.0% previous
•10:00 Greek HICP (YoY) (Sep) 3.2% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
•No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro little changed on Thursday as investors examined European Central Bank officials' views on the interest rate outlook. ECB policymaker François Villeroy de Galhau and Greek central bank director Yannis Stournaras have signaled support for another rate decrease next week. In contrast, ECB policymaker Gabriel Makhlouf stated that wage growth poses upside inflation concerns, while policymaker Peter Kazimir questioned the necessity of a rate cut in October. Economists polled expect the ECB to cut its deposit rate by 25 basis points next week and again in December. The euro was flat at $1.0939 following its dip to $1.0936 in the previous session.. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1005(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1053(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0944(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0920 (Lower BB).
GBP/USD: Sterling was little changed against dollar on Thursday as traders await a key U.S. inflation data due later in the day to gauge the Federal Reserve's future monetary policy stance. San Francisco Fed Bank President Mary Daly indicated that one or two more rate cuts this year are likely if the economy unfolds as she anticipates. Dallas Fed Bank President Lorie Logan advocated for gradual cuts, emphasizing that the U.S. central bank should not rush the process. The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for September is set to be released at 12:30 GMT, followed by Producer Price Index (PPI) data on Friday. Markets currently see an 80% chance of a 25-basis-point Fed rate cut in November. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3127(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3188(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3064(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3000(Psychological level).
NZD/USD: New Zealand dollar is consolidated around 0.6085 on Thursday following a sharp drop on Wednesday after the RBNZ's dovish rate cut. The RBNZ lowered the official cash rate from 5.25% to 4.75%, marking its second consecutive cut since August, in response to slowing inflation and economic activity. Swaps now suggest a 13% chance that the RBNZ could cut by 75 basis points in November. As of GMT 04:16, the kiwi dollar recovered by 0.36% to 0.6106, bouncing back from an overnight low of $0.6050.Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6116(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6142 (Oct 9th high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6078 (23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6040(Lower BB).
USD/JPY: The dollar steadied against the yen on Thursday as markets grew more confident about a patient approach from the Federal Reserve to further monetary easing, even as a key inflation report loomed later in the day. September's consumer price index (CPI), due at 1230 GMT, is likely to show core inflation holding steady at a 3.2% year-on-year clip. Traders lay 80% odds on the Fed cutting rates by a quarter point at its next policy decision on Nov. 7, versus 20% probability of no change, according to the CME Group's FedWatch Tool. A day earlier, the probability of a cut stood at 85%.The dollar index was little changed at 102.86 as of 0024 GMT, sticking close to Wednesday's high of 102.93.Immediate resistance can be seen at 149.49(23.6 %fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 150.00(Psychological level). On the downside, immediate support is seen at 147.61(38.2 %fib), a break below could take the pair towards 147.00(Psychological level).
Equities Recap
Asian stock markets climbed on Thursday, boosted by expectations that China will soon divulge specifics of its fiscal stimulus measures.
Nikkei 225 was up by 0.27%, South Korean KOSPI was up by 0.30%, while Hang Seng was up by 3.60%
Commodities Recap
Oil prices rose on Thursday underpinned by a spike in fuel demand as a major storm barreled into Florida and concerns about potential supply disruptions in the Middle East amid heightened tensions between Israel and major oil producer Iran..
Brent crude futures rose 63 cents, or 0.8%, to $77.21 a barrel, while the U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures were up 63 cents, or 0.9%, at $73.87 a barrel at 0423 GMT.
Gold prices nudged higher on Thursday, while traders await a key U.S. inflation data due later in the day to gauge the Federal Reserve's future monetary policy stance.
Spot gold rose 0.2% to $2,614.00 per ounce by 0246 GMT,after easing for the previous six sessions. Prices scaled a record high last month.U.S. gold futures gained 0.2% at$2,631.40.
