Market Roundup
- Bank of England's Haldane says does not see either households or businesses piling on debt - BBC radio
- Bank of England's Haldane - Asked on possible fed rate hike, says BoE does not move automatically in response to monetary policy changes in other countries
- Malaysia's c.bank says Q3 GDP 4.7 pct vs 4.9 pct in q2; Reuters poll at 4.7 pct, manufacturing sector rose to 4.8 pct in Q3 vs 4.2 pct in Q2
- Malaysia's ringgit remains significantly undervalued at current level -c.bank
- Malaysia's inflation at 3.0 pct in Q3, to peak in Q1 2016 before moderating -c.bank
- Malaysia's exports up 3.2 pct in Q3, imports up 3.2 pct -c.bank
- Japan Sep capacity util idx chg mm* increase to +1.5 % vs prev -0.9 %
- Japan EconMin Amari - Not considering extra budget for economic stimulus, TPP-related issues, Japan population decline amongst considerations -Reuters.
- Japanese banks count costs of dollars as Fed moves to end easy money - RTRS.
- FOMC ViceChair Fischer - Strong USD keeping inflation in check, inflation to rebound next year, US economy weathering strong USD-weak global economy well, may be appropriate to hike rates in December - Reuters.
- Foreign CB US debt holdings +$19.569 bln to $3.303 trln week-ended Nov 11, Treasuries +$19.967 bln to $2.982 trln, agencies -$467 mln to $274.846 bln.
- NY Fed - Swaps with foreign CBs $141 mln Nov 11 week, all with ECB, US did not intervene in FX in Q2.
- Lipper - US stocks funds see first outflows in 5 weeks in week-ended Wed, US bond funds post biggest outflows since September on rate hike fears.
- Non-resident holdings of NZ debt in October 64.9%.
- Bridgewater slashed EM ETF holdings 40% in rocky Q3 - Barron's.
- (0130 ET/ 0630 GMT) France Q3 GDP - flash, +0.3% q/q eyed; last unch.
- (0200 ET/ 0700 GMT) Germany Q3 GDP - flash, +0.3% q/q, +1.8% y/y eyed; last +0.4%, +1.6%.
- (0245 ET/ 0745 GMT) France Q3 non-farm payrolls; last +0.2% q/q.
- (0300 ET/ 0800 GMT) Spain Oct CPI, +0.7% m/m, -0.7% y/y eyed; last -0.3%, -0.9%.
- (0300 ET/ 0800 GMT) Spain Oct HICP, +0.3% m/m, -0.9% y/y eyed; flash +0.4%, -0.9%.
- (0315 ET/ 0815 GMT) Switzerland Oct PPI/import prices, -0.2% m/m, -6.9% y/y eyed; last -0.1%, -6.8%.
- (0330 ET/ 0830 GMT) Sweden Q3 capacity utilization; last +1.0% q/q.
- (0400 ET/ 0900 GMT) Italy Q3 GDP - flash, +0.3% q/q, +1.0% y/y eyed; last +0.3%, +0.7%.
- (0430 ET/ 0930 GMT) UK Sep construction output, +1.5% m/m, -0.3% y/y eyed; last -4.3%, -1.3%.
- (0500 ET/ 1000 GMT) EZ Q3 GDP - flash, +0.4% q/q, +1.7% y/y eyed; last +0.4%, +1.5%.
- (0500 ET/ 1000 GMT) EZ Sep trade balance, E18.2 bln surplus eyed; last E11.2 bln surplus.
- (0500 ET/ 1000 GMT) Italy Oct CPI - final, +0.2% m/m, +0.3% y/y eyed; flash +0.2%, +0.3%.
- (0500 ET/ 1000 GMT) Italy Oct HICP - final, +0.5% m/m, +0.3% y/y eyed; flash +0.5%, +0.3%.
- (0830 ET/ 1330 GMT) US Oct PPI +0.2% m/m, -1.2% y/y eyed; last -0.5%, -1.1%.
- (0830 ET/ 1330 GMT) US Oct - ex-f/e, +0.1% m/m, +0.5% y/y eyed; last -0.3%, +0.8%.
- (0830 ET/ 1330 GMT) US Oct retail sales/ex-autos, +0.3%, +0.4% m/m eyed; last +0.1%, -0.3%.
- (1000 ET/ 1500 GMT) US Sep business inventories, unch m/m eyed; last unch.
- (1000 ET/ 1500 GMT) US Nov U.Mich sentiment index - prelim, 91.5 eyed; last 90.0.
- N/A Various summits in Antalya, Turkey, G20 Saturday-Sunday.
- N/A EcoFin meeting in Brussels, Norges Bank Nicolaisen speaks outside Oslo.
- N/A UK /2.5/2 bln 1/3/6-month treasury bill auctions.
- (0400 ET/ 0900 GMT) ECB VP Constancio speech at Frankfurt conference.
- (0400 ET/ 0900 GMT) Austria National Bank seminar in Vienna/10:00 Gov Nowotny speaks.
- (0700 ET/ 1200 GMT) Buba Dombret speech in Munich.
- (0715 ET/ 1215 GMT) ECB Mersch at Windsor, England conference.
- (0800 ET/ 1300 GMT) BoC DepGov Wilkins speech in Toronto.
- (1230 ET/ 1730 GMT)Cleveland Fed Mester speech in Cleveland.
USD: Dollar was on the defensive against safe havens such as yen, Swiss franc as risk appetite ebbs on tumbling equities.
USD/JPY: Fed speakers on Thursday have not been dollar friendly, with concerns over inflation and timings of a rate hike. Stanley Fischer, spoke about incorporating financial stability into monetary policy, suggesting downward pressure on inflation related to energy will fade. The dollar has been boradly weaker across the board, on the defensive against safe havens such as yen, Swiss franc as risk appetite also ebbs on tumbling equities. USD/JPY is currently trading at 122.61 with low of 122.50 and a high of 122.77 till now. It had scaled a 2-1/2-month high of 123.60 early this week after a bullish U.S. jobs report heightened prospects of the Federal Reserve hiking interest rates in December. Markets will focus on further data from the U.S docket today. Attention will be on retails sales, expectations are for a rise to 0.4% in October vs -0.3% in September.
NZD/USD: The New Zealand dollar held at $0.6544 against the Greenback, having edged off a one-month trough around 65 cents on Thursday. For the week, it was mostly unchanged, having been stuck in a thin band of $0.6499 to $0.6589. The kiwi has come under pressure on growing speculation of further easing by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand in December. Immediate resistance for the pair is seen at 0.6581 (10 DMA), while support is located at 0.6500 (Nov 12 low) and further below at 0.6480 (cloud top).
AUD/NZD: The pair has been trading in a narrow band on the day, gains being capped at 1.0912. AUD/NZD is looking to move over the top on the next catalyst to weigh on the bird while interest rate differentials support the upside bias moving towards the RBNZ meeting in December where markets are looking for further easing to stimulate the New Zealand economy. Bulls could target the 55 DMA at 1.0923 for a recovery back above the 1.10 handle. Immediate supports on the downside are located at 1.0849, 38.2% of post jobs bounce then 1.0816 61.8%.
EUR/USD: The euro, which was hit earlier on Thursday by dovish-sounding comments from European Central Bank President Mario Draghi, benefited from the broad dollar weakness. EUR/USD shorts squeezed as negative correlation with stocks/risk was back in play. The pair is little changed at 1.0806 after sinking to as low as 1.0691 on Thursday. Techically momentum studies are neutral, 5, 10 & 20 DMAs head south indicating bearish setup. Closes below falling 1.0850 10 DMA could buoy bears. 1.0745-50 520M, 1.0775 448M, 1.0800 612M & 1.0850 425M strikes could contain.
USD/CHF: The pair has edged higher from overnight lows of 0.9989 and is currently trading at 1.0015. USD/CHF fell sharply after sellers stepped in after the comments from Fed bankers. The pair has been trading in sideways range off late, a strong rebound is expected to take place sooner or later around 0.9990 levels as this level has been strongly supportive for the bears. To the upside, the strong resistance can be seen at 1.0079, a break above this level would take the pair all the way towards 1.0150 levels. To the downside immediate support can be seen 0.9983 (10 DMA)
Equities Recap
Asian shares looked vulnerable on Friday after commodity prices plunged to multi-year lows.
MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan fell 0.5 percent, led by losses in resource shares. Japan's Nikkei average unofficially closed down 0.51 pct at 19,596.91
Australia's S&P/ASX 200 index unofficially closed down 1.28 pct at 5,060.10 points, while Taiwan stocks closed down 1.2 pct at 8,329.50 points and Seoul shares unofficially closed down 0.87 pct
Shanghai Comp off 0.71%, Hang Seng whopping 2.3%, and Sensex 0.84%.
Commodities Recap
Oil prices fell near 6 1/2-year lows touched in August, down for the third session in a row on Friday on swelling inventories.
Benchmark U.S. crude futures were at $41.47 a barrel at 0139 GMT, down 28 cents from Thursday. Internationally traded Brent crude futures were at $44 a barrel, down six cents.
Gold fell for a twelfth session out of thirteen on Friday, trading close to a near-six-year low on rising bets of fed hike next month. Spot gold was little changed at $1,084.40 an ounce by 0029 GMT.
Copper, often seen as a good gauge of the world's economic health because of its extensive industrial use, fell to a six-year low of $4,800 per tonne, breaking below its August trough.
Other precious metals also tracked gold lower. Silver fell to a 2-1/2-month low in the previous session, Platinum was close to a near-seven-year low of $868.75 reached on Thursday, was eyeing its worst weekly drop in a year.
Treasuries Recap
Australian government bond futures hovered near multi-month lows, with the three-year bond contract up 1 tick at 97.860. The 10-year contract was also 1 tick firmer at 97.0250, while the 20-year contract added 1.5 ticks to 96.4900.
New Zealand government bonds gained, sending yields a couple of basis points lower.
JGB prices ended the morning session steady to slightly higher in quiet trading, sending yields on 10-yr to 20-yr JGBs down 1bp from yesterday's afternoon close.
At midday, yields on the current 5-yr JGBs are unchanged from yesterday's final close at 0.035% ahead of next Tuesday's monthly JPY2.5tn 5-yr JGB auction, while the 10s are down 0.5bp at 0.30%, vs 0.305% earlier.
In the super-long zone, the 20s are down 1bp at 1.07%, while the new 30s (re-opened #48) are flat at 1.385% in line with the average accepted yield in yesterday's auction.
