Market Roundup
• New Zealand ANZ Business Confidence (Sep) 60.9, 50.6 previous:
• New Zealand NBNZ Own Activity (Sep) 45.3%, 37.1% previous
•Australia Housing Credit (Aug): 0.4%, 0.5% previous
•Australia Private Sector Credit (MoM) (Aug) 0.5%, 0.5% previous
• China Manufacturing PMI (Sep) 49.8, forecast 49.4, 49.1 previous
• China Non-Manufacturing PMI (Sep) 50.0, forecast 50.4, 50.3 previous
• China Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Sep) 49.3, forecast 50.5, 50.4 previous
• China Caixin Services PMI (Sep) 50.3, forecast 51.6, 51.6 previous
• Japan Construction Orders (YoY) (Aug) 8.7% 62.8% previous
• UK Business Investment (QoQ) (Q2) 1.4%, forecast -0.1%, 0.6% previous
• UK Current Account (Q2) -28.4B, forecast -32.5B, -13.8B previous
• UK GDP (QoQ) (Q2): 0.5%, forecast 0.6%, 0.7% previous
• UK GDP (YoY) (Q2) 0.7%, forecast 0.9%, 0.3% previous
• UK Nationwide HPI (MoM) (Sep) 0.7%, forecast: 0.3%, -0.2% previous
• UK Nationwide HPI (YoY) (Sep) 3.2%, 2.4% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•No Events Ahead
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro firmed against the dollar on Monday as markets looked ahead to U.S. jobs data on Friday, which could serve as a critical factor in determining the pace of interest rate cuts in the U.S. Market also awaited euro zone releases its inflation figures this week, along with producer prices and unemployment. German inflation and retail sales are due later on Monday, while European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde speaks to parliament . Speeches from Fed Chair Jerome Powell and Governor Michelle Bowman are also expected later in the day .Immediate resistance is noted at 1.1191 (23.6%fib), with a breakout potentially pushing the pair towards 1.1216 (Higher BB). On the downside, immediate support is at 1.1114 (38.2%fib), a drop below this level could lead the pair towards 1.1072 (Sep 19th low).
GBP/USD: Sterling edged lower on Monday as dollar eased as markets looked to U.S. jobs data on Friday as the next major data point that could guide the pace of U.S. interest rate cuts.Data on Friday showed that the U.S. economy retained some of its solid momentum in the third quarter, while inflation pressures continued to abate. This boosted expectations of an another outsized interest rate cut at the Fed's November policy meeting. This week's data lineup includes U.S. ADP employment figures and nonfarm payrolls, which may provide further clarity about the condition of the U.S. labor market. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3417(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3449(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3335(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3274(50%fib).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar steadied on Monday as jump in iron ore prices and weaker greenback bolstered Australian dollar. Iron ore futures surged for a fifth straight session on Monday, as top consumer China's latest property stimulus and a raft of monetary easing policies brightened the key steelmaking ingredient's demand outlook. The Aussie rose 0.2% to $0.6933, just a touch below a 20-month top of $0.6937 hit on Friday. It surged 1.4% last week .Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6902(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6927(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6836(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6814(Sep 24th low).
USD/JPY: The dollar fell against the yen on Monday as investors anxiously waited for more direction from new Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, who has been critical of the Bank of Japan's easy policies in the past. Continued Israeli strikes across Lebanon added geopolitical uncertainty to the mix, though oil prices were still weighed down by the risk of increased supply.The week is packed with major U.S. economic data including a payrolls report that could decide whether the Federal Reserve delivers another outsized rate cut in November. Strong resistance can be seen at 144.73 (38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 145.00 (psychological level). On the downside, immediate support is seen at 141.60(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 140.36(Lower BB).
Equities Recap
Asia share markets turned hesitant on Monday as strife in the Middle East offset more stimulus measures in China, while the Nikkei dived on concerns Japan's new prime minister favoured normalising interest rates.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices eased on Monday but hovered near the record peak hit last week, setting bullion on track for its best quarter in over eight years following a jumbo U.S.rate cut decision and expectations of another outsized reduction in November.
Spot gold was down 0.2% at $2,653.38 per ounce, as of 0404 GMT, owing to a rise in the U.S. dollar.U.S. gold futures rose 0.3% to $2,674.80.
Oil prices extended gains on Monday, buoyed by escalating concerns over potential supply pressures from Middle East producers following Israel's increased attacks on Iranian-backed forces in the region.
Brent crude futures for November delivery increased 51 cents, or 0.71%, to $72.49 a barrel as of 0330 GMT.U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures CLc1 added 43 cents, or 0.63%, to $68.61 a barrel.
