Asia Roundup: Dollar on defensive before Thanksgiving, Asian stocks climb,Gold eases from near two-week high,Oil falls-Nov 27th,2025

Market Roundup

• New Zealand Core Retail Sales (QoQ) 1.2%   ,0.8% forecast,1.0% previous     

• New Zealand Retail Sales (QoQ) (Q3) 1.9%, 0.6%   forecast ,0.7% previous

• New Zealand ANZ Business Confidence (Nov) 67.1, 58.1 previous         

• New Zealand NBNZ Own Activity (Nov) 53.1%, 44.6% previous               

•Australia Building Capital Expenditure (MoM) (Q3) 2.1%, 0.2% previous                       

•Australia Plant/Machinery Capital Expenditure (QoQ) (Q3) 11.5%, 0.7% previous            

•Australia Private New Capital Expenditure (QoQ) (Q3) 6.4%, 0.6% forecast,0.4% previous

Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)

• 09:00 EU M3 Money Supply (YoY) (Oct) 2.8% forecast, 2.8% previous

•09:00 EU M3 Money Supply (Oct) 16,990.4B previous

•09:00 EU Loans to Non-Financial Corporations (Oct) 2.9% previous

•09:00 EU Private Sector Loans (YoY) (Oct) 2.6% forecast, 2.6% previous

•10:00 EU Italian Industrial Sales (YoY) (Sep) -0.10% previous

•10:00 EU Italian Industrial Sales (MoM) (Sep) -0.70% previous

•10:00 EU Business and Consumer Survey (Nov) 97.0 forecast, 96.8 previous

•10:00 EU Business Climate (Nov) -0.46 previous

•10:00 EU Consumer Confidence (Nov) -14.2 forecast, -14.2 previous

•10:00 EUR Consumer Inflation Expectation (Nov) 21.9 previous

•10:00 EU Selling Price Expectations (Nov) 7.5 previous

•10:00 EU Services Sentiment (Nov) 4.4 forecast, 4.0 previous

•10:00 EU Industrial Sentiment (Nov) -8.0 forecast, -8.2 previous

Looking Ahead Events And Other Release(GMT)

• 12:30 ECB Publishes Account of Monetary Policy Meeting

Currency Forecast

EUR/USD : The euro edged firmed   on Thursday  as dollar was on the back foot ahead of the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday and investors turning to the coming year where a series of U.S. interest rate cuts are priced in. Weekly jobless claims fell last week, data on Wednesday showed, though the labor market is struggling to generate enough jobs for those out of work.U.S. consumer confidence also weakened in November on concerns regarding jobs and household financial outlook.Some Fed officials, led by New York Fed President John Williams and Governor Christopher Waller, have stated a December easing may be warranted due to the labor market weakness putting downward pressure on Treasury yields.Meanwhile, Kevin Hassett, who has emerged as a frontrunner to replace Jerome Powell as Fed Chair, like U.S. President Donald Trump, has said rates should be lower. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1600(Psychological level), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.16818(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1558(SMA20), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1524(50%fib).

GBP/USD:    Sterling strenthed against the dollar on Thursday as the dollar softened ahead of the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday. U.S. data flow has resumed since the record 43-day government shutdown ended mid-November, most of the economic reports issued so far have been significantly dated and have offered very little insight into the health of the economy.That has turned investors' attention squarely on comments from Fed officials to gauge the U.S. monetary policy path, with comments this week from San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President Mary Daly and Fed Governor Christopher Waller boosting expectations of a rate cut.Traders are now pricing in an 85% chance of a rate cut next month compared with just 30% a week earlier, CME FedWatch showed. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3253(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3273(SMA 20).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3122(SMA 20), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3051(23.6%fib).

AUD/USD: The Australian dollar extended gains on Thursday, supported by shifting market expectations that the RBA’s monetary easing cycle is over. Consumer inflation accelerated for a fourth consecutive month in October, according to data on Wednesday, prompting markets to abandon bets on further easing and start pricing in the risk of a rate hike. The Australian Bureau of Statistics reported the monthly CPI rose 3.8% year-on-year, its highest in 10 months and above the 3.6% median forecast. Meanwhile, Thursday’s data showed business investment climbed 6.4% in Q3, driven by strong demand for data centres and logistics, suggesting upside risks to economic growth. Swap markets now price in just a 15% chance of another RBA cut next year, while assigning a 30% probability to a hike by late 2026. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6514(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6523 (Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6424(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6447(Lower BB)

USD/JPY:  The U.S. dollar eased on Thursday as the yen strengthened, with investors watching for signs of intervention after repeated warnings from authorities. Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi on Wednesday dismissed the possibility of a British-style “Truss moment,” saying her expansionary fiscal policy would not undermine market confidence. The yen has weakened steadily since early October amid investor concerns over Takaichi’s fiscal plans and uncertainty surrounding the BoJ’s policy timing. Analysts suggest the BoJ could signal a rate hike as soon as next month, potentially following a more consistent tightening path to support the currency. Immediate resistance can be seen at 157.83(23.6%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 158.00 (Psychological level) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at  155.63 (38.2%fib)  a break below could take the pair towards 155.08 (SMA 20)

Equities Recap

Asian markets climbed on Thursday, supported by a softer dollar amid Fed rate-cut expectations, while traders eyed the yen for intervention risks and a possible BoJ hike.

China A50 jumped 0.32% and South Korea's Kospi  was up  0.66%. Hong Kong's Hang Seng  added 0.21%.

Commodities Recap

Oil slipped on Thursday amid expectations that a Ukraine-Russia ceasefire could allow Western sanctions on Russian supply to be rolled back, though volume was muted due to the U.S. holiday.

Brent crude futures  shed 33 cents, or 0.5%, to $62.8 a barrel as of 0445 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures  lost 32 cents, or 0.6%, to $58.33 a barrel.

Gold retreated Thursday after hitting a near two-week high, as markets balanced profit-taking against the possibility of a December Fed rate cut.

Spot gold   fell 0.5% to $4,145.08 per ounce, as of 0405 GMT. U.S. gold futures   for December delivery slipped 0.6% to $4,140.80 per ounce.