Market Roundup
•New Zealand ANZ Business Confidence (Nov) 64.9, 65.7 previous
•New Zealand NBNZ Own Activity (Nov): 48.0%, 45.9% previous
•Australia Building Capital Expenditure (MoM) (Q3): 1.1%, -3.8% previous
•Plant/Machinery Capital Expenditure (QoQ) (Q3): 1.1%, -1.0% previous
•Australia Private New Capital Expenditure (QoQ) (Q3): 1.1%, 0.9% forecast, -2.2% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•08:00 French Consumer Spending (MoM) (Oct) -0.1%, 0.1% previous
•08:00 French CPI (MoM) (Nov) 0.0%, 0.2% previous
•08:00 French CPI (YoY) (Nov) 1.5%, 1.2% previous
•08:00 French GDP (YoY) (Q3) 1.3%, 1.0% previous
•08:00 French GDP (QoQ) (Q3) 0.4%, 0.2% previous
•08:00 French HICP (MoM) (Nov) 0.0%, 0.3% previous
•08:00 French HICP (YoY) (Nov) 1.7%, 1.6% previous
•08:00 French Non-Farm Payrolls (QoQ) (Q3) -0.1%, 0.0% previous
•08:00 French PPI (MoM) (Oct) 0.0%, -0.1% previous
•08:00 Swiss GDP (QoQ) (Q3) 0.4%, 0.7% previous
•08:00 Swiss GDP (YoY) (Q3) 1.8%, 1.8% previous
•08:55 German Unemployment Change (Nov) 20K forecast, 27K previous
•08:55 German Unemployment Rate (Nov) 6.1% forecast,6.1% previous
•08:55 German Unemployment (Nov) 2.856M previous
•08:55 German Unemployment n.s.a. (Nov) 2.791M previous
•09:00 Italian Industrial Sales (YoY) (Sep) -4.60% previous
•09:00 Italian Industrial Sales (MoM) (Sep) -0.10% previous
•10:00 Italian CPI (MoM) (Nov) -0.2% forecast, 0.0% previous
•10:00 Italian CPI (YoY) (Nov) 1.4% forecast, 0.9% previous
•10:00 Italian HICP (YoY) (Nov) 1.5% forecast, 1.0% previous
•10:00 EU Core CPI (MoM) (Nov) 0.2% previous
•10:00 EU CPI (MoM) (Nov) 0.3% previous
•10:00 EU CPI (YoY) (Nov) 2.3% 2.0% previous
•10:00 EU n.s.a (Nov) 127.03 previous
•10:00 EU HICP ex Energy & Food (YoY) (Nov) 2.7% previous
•10:00 EU HICP ex Energy and Food (MoM) (Nov) 0.3% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Release(GMT)
•No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro edged higher on Friday as dollar dipped as markets rekindled hopes for a U.S. rate cut in December.A reading of euro-area inflation is due later in the day that could give hints on the pace of European Central Bank rate cuts, while France's budget wrangling may continue to drag on the shared currency.ECB policymaker Francois Villeroy de Galhau said on Thursday that the central bank should keep its options open for a bigger rate cut next month, countering hawkish comments from peer Isabel Schnabel the previous day.The euro has tumbled about 2.8% in November, putting it on course for its worst month since May of last year. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0592(Nov 27th high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0634(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0531(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0415(23.6%fib)
GBP/USD: The pound strengthened on Friday as US dollar fell broadly in thin holiday trade. ew traders were interested in building or holding positions before a long Thanksgiving weekend for many of them that dovetails with month end. Markets are closed Thursday and exchanges close early on Friday. The dollar has been in the doldrums since its surge to a two-year high against a basket of key rivals a week ago, but remains on track for a more than 2% gain in November, following its more than 3% leap last month.lot of that strength has been fuelled by Donald Trump's resounding election victory on Nov. 5, pumping up expectations of big fiscal spending, higher tariffs and tighter borders, all seen by economists as inflationary. Major U.S. data releases next week including job openings, the ADP employment report and the employment report will likely offer cues about the Fed's policy outlook. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2755(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2800 (Psychologicallevel).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2652(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2519(23.6%fib)
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar strengthened against dollar Friday as hawkish speech by Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Governor Michele Bullock supported Australian dollar. Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Governor Michele Bullock stated at an economic conference that the core inflation rate of 3.5% in the third quarter exceeded the RBA's target range of 2% to 3%. She emphasized that policy must remain restrictive until the bank is confident that the target band can be achieved. The central bank has maintained its cash rate at 4.35% for a full year, and markets had already priced in just a 10% likelihood of a quarter-point cut at its next board meeting on December 10.At GMT 05:40, Australian dollar was up at 0.26% at $0.6514, holding steady for the week after reaching a four-month low of $0.6434. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6538(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6580(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6470(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6436(Nov 26th low).
USD/JPY: The dollar declined to hit six week low against the yen on Friday after faster-than-expected inflation in Tokyo supported bets for a Bank of Japan interest rate hike next month. Japan's currency has been boosted by safe-haven flows amid Trump's broad tariff warnings to Mexico, Canada and China this week, and by growing bets that the BOJ will raise rates again on Dec. 19.Traders currently lay about 57% odds for a quarter-point increase, and just over half of economists in a Reuters poll predicted the same.Potentially adding to the case for a hike, Tokyo's core consumer price index (CPI), which excludes volatile fresh food costs, rose 2.2% in November from a year earlier. That exceeded a median market forecast for a 2.1% gain and accelerated from a 1.8% increase in October. Immediate resistance can be seen at 150.59 (38.2%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 152.58 (50%fib). On the downside, immediate support is seen at 148.67 (50%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 147.10(61.8%fib).
Equities Recap
Asian shares rose on Friday while the yen was aiming for its best week in four months as strong inflation data from Tokyo had traders favouring an imminent rate hike from the Bank of Japan.
Japan's Nikkei was down by 0.52%,South Korean kospi was down 1.99%, while Hang Seng fell 0.01 %.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices rose on Friday, helped by a slight dip in the U.S. dollar and growing geopolitical tension, but remained on track for its biggest monthly decline in more than a year after Donald Trump's U.S. election victory.
Spot gold rose 0.8% to $2,662.78 per ounce, as of 0556 GMT, while U.S. gold futures gained 0.9% to $2,662.20.
Oil prices rose slightly on Friday following a potential renewal of supply risk as Israel and Hezbollah traded accusations of ceasefire violations, and as a delay to an OPEC+ meeting left investors awaiting a decision on its output policy.
Brent crude futures rose 10 cents, or 0.1%, to $73.38 a barrel by 0516 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures were at $69.17, up 45 cents, or 0.7%, compared to Wednesday's closing price.
