Market Roundup
•New Zealand NZIER Business Confidence (Q3): -1%, -44% previous
•New Zealand NZIER QSBO Capacity Utilization (Q3): 89.1%, 88.7% previous
•New Zealand Building Consents (MoM) (Aug): -5.3%, 26.4% previous
•Australia Manufacturing PMI: 46.7, 48.5 previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•07:50 French Manufacturing PMI (Sep): 44.0 forecast, 43.9 previous
•08:00 Greek Manufacturing PMI (Sep): 52.9 previous
•08:00 EUR: Manufacturing PMI (Sep): 44.8 forecast, 45.8 previous
•08:30 GBP: Manufacturing PMI (Sep): 51.5 forecast, 52.5 previous
•09:00 Greek Unemployment Rate (Aug): 9.9% previous
•09:00 EU Core CPI (MoM) (Sep): 0.3% previous
•09:00 EU Core CPI (YoY) (Sep): 2.7% forecast, 2.8% previous
•09:00 EU CPI (YoY) (Sep): 1.8% forecast, 2.2% previous
•09:00 EU CPI (MoM) (Sep): 0.1% previous
•09:00 EU CPI, n.s.a (Sep): 126.72 previous
•09:00 EUHICP ex Energy & Food (YoY) (Sep): 2.8% previous
•09:00 EU HICP ex Energy and Food (MoM) (Sep): 0.3% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
•No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro dipped on Tuesday as dollar firmed after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell pushed back against bets on more supersized interest rate cuts . Powell adopted a more hawkish tone in a speech at a conference in Tennessee, saying the U.S. central bank would likely stick with quarter-percentage-point interest rate cuts moving forward.Powell's speech came ahead of a heavy week of U.S. data, including the Institute for Supply Management's manufacturing index later on Tuesday and non-manufacturing report on Thursday, followed by Friday's potentially crucial monthly jobs figures. Immediate resistance is noted at 1.1191 (23.6%fib), with a breakout potentially pushing the pair towards 1.1216 (Higher BB). On the downside, immediate support is at 1.1114 (38.2%fib), a drop below this level could lead the pair towards 1.1072 (Sep 19th low).
GBP/USD: Sterling edged lower on Monday as dollar rose overnight on Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's signal another outsized rate cut was unlikely at its next meeting in November. In the U.S., Powell pushed back on aggressive policy cutting bets on Monday, forecasting the central bank was likely to stick with quarter-percentage-point interest rate cuts moving forward. But on Monday traders saw a 36.7% probability of a 50 basis point cut in November, down from 53.3% on Friday, according the latest reading on CME Group's FedWatch tool . Sterling was down 0.2% on the dollar at $1.3349 . Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3417(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3449(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3335(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3274(50%fib).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar steadied on Tuesday as upbeat Australian retail sales bolstered Australian dollar. Australian retail sales rebounded more than expected in August after a soft July as unusually warm weather brought forward spring spending, a possible sign consumers are dipping into extra income from recent tax cuts.Data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) on Tuesday showed retail sales rose 0.7% in August from July when they edged up 0.1%. Analysts had looked for a rise of 0.4%. The Aussie up 0.2% to $0.6928 , having already hit a fresh 19-month top overnight at $0.6942.Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6945(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6972(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6895(Daily low), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6857(38.2%fib).
USD/JPY: The dollar rose versus the yen on Tuesday as the US currency benefited from Fed Powell's hawkish statements, but investors anticipated further guidance from new Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba. Shigeru Ishiba, who is expected to be approved as Japan's new prime minister later on Tuesday, is viewed by markets as a monetary policy hawk, despite a recent tone-down of language on the need for policy normalization. He won his party's leadership ballot on Friday in one of the closest races ever, and he is now aiming to unify the party by announcing a snap general election for October 27.The minutes of the Bank of Japan's (BOJ) September meeting revealed on Tuesday that policymakers emphasized the need for caution over near-term interest rate hikes, with little impact on the market. The greenback rose 0.45%to 144.27 yen.Strong resistance can be seen at 144.73 (38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 145.00 (psychological level). On the downside, immediate support is seen at 141.60(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 140.36(Lower BB).
Equities Recap
Asian stocks were mixed on Tuesday following comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell that scuppered bets of big interest rate cuts, while Middle-East tension kept investors sentiment in check.
South Korea KOSPI was down 2.11 percent, Hang Seng was up 2.43 percent,Japan's Nikkei was up 1.97 percent
Commodities Recap
Gold prices remained barely below recent record highs on Tuesday after the US Federal Reserve Chair downplayed prospects for big interest rate cuts this year.
Spot gold inched 0.3% higher to $2,641.33 per ounce, as of 0512 GMT, off a record-high level of $2,685.42 reached on Thursday. U.S. gold futures edged 0.2% higher to $2,663.10.
Oil prices steadied, as stronger supply expectations and slowing global demand growth outweighed concerns that escalating tensions in the Middle East would harm output from the key export region.
.Brent crude futures for December delivery edged up 13 cents, or 0.18%, to $71.83 a barrel as of 0615 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures for November delivery gained 14 cents, or 0.21%, to $68.31.
