Market Roundup
- Japan Oct Construction Orders Yy Decrease To -25.2 % Vs Prev 6.7 %
- Japan Oct Housing Starts Yy Decrease To -2.5 % (Fcast 2.9 %) Vs Prev 2.6 %
- Australia Oct priv-sector credit +0.7% m/m, +0.6% forecast, housing +0.6%.
- Australia Nov TD/MI inflation gauge +0.1% m/m, +1.8% y/y, t-mean unch, +1.6%.
- Australia Q3 company profits +1.3%v q/q, Q2 rev -0.5%, prev est -1.9%.
- NZ Nov ANZ biz confidence +14.6%, own activity +32%, Oct +10.5%, +23.7%.
- NZ Oct new dwelling consents +5.1% m/m, +12.9% y/y, Sept -5.8% m/m.
- Japan Oct industrial output +1.4% m/m, +1.9% forecast, Nov forecast at +0.2%, prev forecast -0.3%, Dec forecast at -0.9%.
- Japan Oct retail sales +1.8% y/y, +0.8% forecast.
- Japan government to cut corporate tax below 30% in April - Reuters.
- Govts, investors partner to break through clean technology barriers - RTRS.
- Bank of Japan Gov Kuroda - BoJ has ability, strong determination to achieve 2% CPI target, fundamentals strong, corp-household sectors have improved, slow to achieve inflation target due to energy, won't hesitate to act if needed to achieve target, China-EM slowdown risk, FX stability desired, right to intervene if FX out of line with fundamentals - Reuters.
- Japan fund managers trim stock holdings, up bond holdings in Nov - RTRS poll.
- BPCE markets triple-tranche samurais, T2 bonds via MUFJ, Mizuho, SMBC et al.
- Foreign CB US debt holdings +14.48 bln to $3.322 trln week-ended Nov 25, Treasuries +$15.953 bln to $3.003 trln, agencies -$1.302 bln to $273.330 bln.
- NY Fed- Swaps with foreign CBs 11/25 week $145 mln, BoJ $4 mln, ECB $141 mln.
- Lipper - US stock funds attract $2.9 bln week-ended November 25.
- JP Morgan leapfrogs Goldman as top fee earner this year - IFR.
- Bank of England MPC Vlieghe - Relaxed about waiting to hike rates, forecasting better data, GBP exchange rate "tightening" huge - Sunday Times.
- UK banks await turn of credit screw by Bank of England - Reuters preview.
- Swiss cable car group wants new cap on CHF - Schweiz am Sonntag.
- Greece CB Stournaras - Political consensus needed to end debt crisis -MegaTV.
Economic Data Ahead
- (0300 ET/0800 GMT) China Nov KoF indicator, 100.2 forecast; last 99.8.
- (0300 ET/0800 GMT) Spain Oct retail sales; last +4.3% y/y.
- (0330 ET/0830 GMT) Sweden Q3 GDP, +0.4% q/q, +3.4% y/y forecast; last +1.0%, +3.0%.
- (0400 ET/0900 GMT) Spain Sep current account balance; last bln surplus.
- (0400 ET/0900 GMT) Norway Oct credit indicator, +5.6% y/y forecast; last +5.6%.
- (0430 ET/0930 GMT) Great Britain Oct mortgage approvals, 70k forecast; last 68.87k.
- (0430 ET/0930 GMT) Great Britain Oct mortgage lending, bln forecast; last GBP3.6 bln.
- (0430 ET/0930 GMT) Great Britain Oct consumer credit, GBP1.3 bln forecast; last bln.
- (0430 ET/0930 GMT) Great Britain Oct money supply M4; last -1.0%.
- (0500 ET/1000 GMT) Italy Nov CPI - flash, +0.3% y/y forecast; last +0.2% m/m, +0.3% y/y.
- (0500 ET/1000 GMT) Italy Nov HICP - flash, -0.2% m/m, +0.4% y/y forecast; last +0.5%, +0.3%.
- (0600 ET/1100 GMT) Italy Oct PPI; last -0.2% m/m, -3.0% y/y.
- (0800 ET/1300 GMT) Germany Nov HICP - flash, +0.1% m/m, +0.3% y/y forecast; last unch, +0.2%.
- (0900 ET/1400 GMT) Belgium Q3 GDP - revised; prelim +0.2% q/q.
- (0945 ET/1445 GMT) United States Nov Chicago PMI, 54.0 forecast; last 56.2.
- (1000 ET/1500 GMT) United States Oct pending home sales, +1.5% m/m forecast; last -2.3%.
- (0930 ET/1430 GMT) United States Nov Dallas Fed mfg business index; last -12.7.
Key Events Ahead
- N/A UN COP 21 summit in Paris (COP 21 till December 11).
- N/A IMF decision on RMB inclusion in SDR.
- N/A Athens Economic Conference, Greek FinMin Tsakalotos to speak (till tom).
- N/A France E3.6-4/1.4-1.8/1.4-1.8 bln 3/6/12-month BTF auctions.
- (0400 ET/0900 GMT) Norway December central bank FX operations, Nov NOK700 mln/day net sales.
- (0830 ET/1330 GMT) Fed open meeting on Dodd-Frank amendments.
- (1325 ET/1825 GMT) Bank of Spain Gov Linde speech on Mallorca.
FX Beat
USD: The dollar edged up to new 8-1/2-month high against a basket of global currencies on Monday, while the prospect of further stimulus this week by the European Central Bank kept the euro on the defensive. It gained about 0.1 percent to 100.12 after earlier rising as high as 100.23, closing in on a 12-year high of 100.39 set in March. Against the yen, the dollar was stable at 122.75, still in consolidation mode after reaching a 3-month peak of 123.77 on Nov. 18. It was on track to rise 1.7 percent in November, and is up 2.5 percent so far in 2015.
EUR/USD: The euro inched down about 0.1 percent to $1.0583 , slidding down towards last week's low of $1.0565 - a level not seen since April. It was down nearly 4 percent for the month and more than 12 percent in 2015. Against the yen, the euro was down about 0.2 percent at 129.90, not far from a 7-month trough of 129.67 set on Friday. Despite euro's intra-day decline from 1.0638 to 1.0569 on Friday, subsequent short-covering rebound suggests further choppy trading would continue before recent downtrend resumes. EUR/USD is facing strong minor resistance is around 1.0660 and break above targets 1.0720/1.0770/1.0830. The pair's major
support is around 1.0460 (Mar 2015 low) and below that will drag the pair till 1.0400/1.03500 level. In weekly chart the pair has closed below 1.06186 (88.6 % retracement of 1.04695 and 1.1751) at 1.05893 level. This confirms major weakness a decline till 1.03500 (1.13% of 1.04685 and 1.1750) is possible. Overall bearish invalidation only above 1.0830.
GBP/USD: The pound sterling slipped to a 7-month low in Asian trading on Monday, on growing expectations that the Bank of England will hold off on hiking interest
rates. Sterling dropped as low as $1.5015, its lowest against the dollar since April 23, and was last buying $1.5025.
USD/JPY: Impressive Japan's retail sales data and optimistic BOJ Kuroda's comments keep the Japanese Yen supported in Asian trade. USD/JPY hit session lows at 122.69, attempts of recovery has been thwarted, pair was rejected at highs (long upper wicks on hourly candles), currently trades at 122.71. Immediate resistance is seen at 122.95 (Daily High Nov 26) ahead of 123.01 (Tenkan-Sen), while support is located at 122.26 (Daily Low Nov 25) and further below at 122.30 (double bottom Nov 24,27). Traders remain cautious ahead of macro updates from China and Australia due tomorrow. Later today, Germany will release its
preliminary inflation data for November, with CPI growth expected to show a 0.1% advance on a monthly basis
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar dropped to $0.7173, from $0.7196 late on Friday and a 1-month peak of $0.7283 last week. Support was found at $0.7159. It lost ground against a soggy euro which gained up to A$1.4751. The Aussie was under 72 U.S. cents, having retreated from last week's high of $0.7283. Moreover, traders remain cautious ahead of macro updates from China and Australia due tomorrow. AUD/USD is currently trading at 0.7190, with immediate reisstance at
0.7198 (50% Fibo Retracement level) and support at 0.7176 (Daily Tenkan)
EUR/JPY: The pair slipped below the 130 handle on Friday's trade, hit a fresh 7-month low at 129.67, but has currently pared some losses on the day to currently trade at 129.94. It continues to see successively lower retracement highs, 130.10 high today, likely cap for now, hourly cloud above between 130.05-25. 100 and 200 SMAs show bearish crossover around 135.20 for the first time since mid August, further confirming the risk towards the downside. Daily RSI is probing its most
oversold reading since the September and Stochs are also in highly overbought zone, so some caution advised as pair might see some unwinding. Immediate
resistance is located at 130.16 (5 DMA) ahead of 130.25 (Daily High Nov 27), while supports are seen at 129.67 (Nov 27 low) and further below at 129.63 (76.4% Fibo 126.08-141.06)
NZD/USD: The kiwi edged higher from session lows at 0.6514 after upbeat NZ business confidence data, but lower commodities and a broadly stronger US dollar likely to weigh on the pair. It is currently trading at 0.6538, with immediate resistance at 0.6545 (50 % Fibo retracement of 0.6196 - 0.6896 rise). Strong resistance is seen around 0.6555 to 0.6560 region, further bullishness can be seen only on breaks above trendline resistance at 0.6568, pair could then test 0.6628 (38.2 % Fibo retracement of 0.6196 - 0.6896 rise). On the downside support is seen at 0.6500 levels, breaks below could take the pair to 0.6428 levels and then to
0.6384.
USD/CHY: In onshore trade, the yuan slipped down to a 3-month low of 6.3918 to the dollar before bouncing back to 6.3962, almost flat from Friday. But in volatile offshore trading, the yuan fell to a 2-1/2-month lows of 6.4591 to the dollar before rising back to 6.4354, up 0.2 percent on the day.
Equities Recap
Asian shares dropped on Monday as Chinese stocks extended last week's sharp losses, while the yuan bounced in volatile trade hours ahead of an IMF decision on
whether to promote it to a basket of global reserve currencies.
MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan dropped 0.7 percent, and was on course to log a loss of about 2.7 percent for the month of November, after
making its first gains in 6 months in October.
Tokyo's Nikkei closed down 0.69 Pct At 19,747.47 while Mainland Chinese shares CSI300 opened slightly higher but then sank 1.7 percent, after posting their
biggest one-day drops in more than three months on Friday.
Australia's S&P/Asx 200 Index ended down 0.69% At 5166.50 with Seoul down by 1.82 Pct At 1991.97
Commodities Recap
Gold extended losses on Monday, slipping towards its lowest level in nearly six years, and was poised to record its steepest monthly slide in 2-1/2 years on prospects
of a U.S. interest rate hike this year. Gold fetched $1,055.50 per ounce, just above Friday's low of $1,053.50. Spot gold was little changed at $1,056.30 an ounce by
0340 GMT. It had slipped to $1,052.70 earlier in the session, within striking distance of $1,052.46, the lowest since February 2010, reached on Friday.
Brent crude futures dropped on Monday as traders remained cautious ahead of an OPEC meeting later this week and as a widely expected U.S. interest rate hike strengthened the dollar. Benchmark Brent for January was down 12 cents, or 0.27 percent, at $44.74 a barrel at 0409 GMT. U.S. crude gained 7 cents to $41.78. Oil prices were also lethargic after their drop on Friday. Global benchmark Brent futures dropped 0.1 percent to $44.80 per barrel. Among other precious metals, silver
was poised to log its worst month in year, with a near-10 percent drop.
Treasuries Recap
U.S. 10-year Treasury yield last stood at 2.2228 Percent Vs U.S. Close Of 2.225 Percent On Friday .
Australian government bond futures were changed. The three-year bond contract dropped 1 tick at 97.900, while the 10-year contract was stable at 97.1250. The 20
-year contract gained half a tick to 96.6350.
New Zealand government bonds eased, with yields 1.5 basis points higher at the long end of the curve.
