Market Roundup
•Australia NAB Business Confidence (Oct) 5, -2 previous
•Australia NAB Business Survey (Oct) 7,7 previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
•10:00 German ZEW Current Conditions (Nov) -86.0 forecast,-86.9 previous
•10:00 German ZEW Economic Sentiment (Nov) 13.2 forecast, 13.1 previous
•10:00 EU ZEW Economic Sentiment (Nov) 20.5 forecast, 20.1 previous
•10:10 Italian 12-Month BOT Auction 2.859% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
•No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro dipped against dollar on Tuesday amid fears that U.S. policies, including tariffs, under President-elect Donald Trump could threaten growth in the euro zone.The common currency has been further pressured by ongoing German political concerns following the collapse of the three-way governing coalition. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said over the weekend he would be willing to call a vote of confidence in parliament before Christmas. The euro sank to $1.0629 overnight for the first time since April 22, and last changed hands at $1.0635.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0732(Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0761(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0621`(Daily low), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0600(Psychological level)
GBP/USD: Sterling dipped on Tuesday as investors continued to pile into trades seen as benefiting from the incoming Donald Trump administration.The expectations that Trump will implement economic and trade policies that will boost the U.S. economy have sent the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields higher. The dollar index is hovering at the highest in over 4 months.The odds that the Federal Reserve will deliver a rate cut at next month's meeting have slipped on prospects that Trump's policies are likely to muddle the inflation outlook. The probability of a rate cut in December is down to 2-in-3 from nearly 80%. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2877(Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2910(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2798 (23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2773 (Lower BB).
AUD/USD: The Australian eased against dollar on Tuesday as disappointment over China's latest policy package announced on Friday and Trump's pledges of 60% tariffs on China continued to weigh on the Australian dollar. President-elect Donald Trump's proposed tariff and tax policies are set to clash with the U.S. Federal Reserve's inflation-curbing efforts. With Trump's Republican Party likely controlling both houses of Congress when he takes office in January, fiscally expansive policies are expected, tempering the extent of the Fed's future rate cuts and boosting the U.S. dollar. At GMT 07:32, the Australian dollar was down 0.30 % at 0.6653 against US dollar. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6627(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6682(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6560 (23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6520(Lower BB).
USD/JPY: The dollar strengthened against yen on Tuesday as greenback strengthened on expectations that robust US economic growth and aggressive trade policies under Trump presidency. Trump said he will impose tariffs of 60% or more on goods from China. The proposed tariffs, as well as other policies such as tax cuts, are seen as inflationary and likely to keep U.S. interest rates relatively high in a blow to currencies of trading partners. On the macro side, investor focus will be on U.S. consumer price inflation data on Wednesday, with a parade of Federal Reserve speakers also due to speak this week, including Fed Chair Jerome Powell on Thursday. Markets are pricing in 87% chance of the Fed cutting rates in December by 25 basis points. Immediate resistance can be seen at 154.19(23.6 %fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 155.08(Higher BB). On the downside, immediate support is seen at 152.21(Nov 8th low) a break below could take the pair towards 151.32(38.2%fib).
Equities Recap
Asian stocks tumbled on Tuesday dragged by Chinese markets and chip shares as investors worried about U.S. President-elect Donald Trump's policies
At GMT 07:40 ,China A50 was down by 0.95%, South Korean KOSPI was down by 1.94%, while Hang Seng was down by 3.06%
Commodities Recap
Oil prices eased on Tuesday as investor disappointment over China's latest stimulus plan and oversupply concerns weighed on the market, along with a stronger dollar.
Brent crude futures fell 17 cents, or 0.2%, to $71.66 a barrel, by 0550 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures were at $67.84 a barrel, down 20 cents or 0.3%.
Gold hovered near a one-month low on Tuesday, as investors awaited a set of key U.S. economic data and comments from Federal Reserve officials for further clarity on the interest rate trajectory.
Spot gold slipped 0.1% to $2,617.15 per ounce by 0436 GMT, after hitting its lowest since Oct. 10 on Monday. U.S. gold futures rose 0.2% to $2,623.30.
